Sunday Night Links and the Return of Coffee Talk

Our friend Devin (of College Basketball Chronotope) provides a couple useful links:

• 2008 Big Ten player efficiency ratings: Goran Suton ranked as the 4th most efficient player in the conference on a per-minute basis.
• A preliminary 2009 Big Ten power poll: His rundown of the 11 conference teams has a lot more meat on the bones than mine did. He has MSU second behind Purdue and pegs his Hoosiers to slide all the way down to last place.

In the wider world of college basketball, the ACC doesn’t think they’re getting enough NCAA Tournament bids:

For the second time in three years since the ACC expanded to 12 schools, just four of its teams were selected for the NCAA tournament. Despite having the highest conference RPI for 2007-08, the ACC received fewer NCAA bids than the Big East, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC.

Here’s a case where the difference between the mean and the median makes a difference.  Based on average RPI, the ACC was indeed the highest ranked conference this past season.  But that figure is pulled upward by UNC’s #1 and Duke’s #7 rankings.  Based on the median RPI ranking–a more appropriate gauge of how good the teams in the middle of the conference are–the ACC ranked only 4th among college conferences.  (I’m embarrassed to note the Big Ten’s median RPI ranking was 101st, due to the big drop-off from Ohio State to Minnesota.)  Conclusion: UNC and Duke being really good doesn’t mean Virginia Tech and Wake Forest should get into the Big Dance.

There’s no trouble on the Academic Progress Ratings front for Michigan State.

According to a poll of college coaches, MSU has two of the top 20 assistant coaches in the country.  Mark Montgomery ranks 16th; Dwayne Stephens ranks 17th.  Seems like there’s been less chatter about Montgomery being a candidate for head coaching jobs this year than there was the previous couple years.

Here’s a fun read from Sports Illustrated’s recently-opened vault: A piece written in February 2000 about Morris Peterson. I’d forgotten that MSU beat UConn in a nonconference game played in the middle of the conference season that year. And most people forget how unheralded Peterson was as an incoming freshman–his only scholarship offers from major programs were from MSU and Minnesota. He remains Izzo’s greatest achievement in terms of player development: a one-dimensional scorer who became an All-American and a an NBA starter.

Speaking of Spartan players from seasons past, let’s see if anyone’s still out there.  Here’s your first offseason Coffee Talk question:

Who is your favorite MSU basketball player of all time?  (And why?)

My answer to this question doesn’t require much conjuring up of days of yore.  Drew Netizel, who shares my hometown and high school alma mater (Wyoming Park), is my all-time favorite.  You already know what I think about his career.

Mrs. Spartans Weblog’s pick is more eclectic: Matt Ishbia.  We remember fondly cheering for the diminutive walk-on to enter the game at the end of blowouts during our days as student season ticket holders.

Your turn . . .

Back-of-the-envelope, way-too-early 2008-09 Big Ten basketball conference preview

With the transfers of Udoh and Freeman, the dismissal of Bassett and Ellis, and the decision by Kosta Koufos to hire an agent, the conference landscape for next season appears to be relatively well settled. So–with just 8 short months to go before 2009 conference play begins–let’s take a look at how the 11 Big Ten men’s basketball teams stack up.

I’ve ranked the teams according to my own subjective judgment of their relative strength. For each team, I’ve listed the players who are leaving–due to either graduation, transfer, or early draft entry–as well as a projected starting lineup. As indicated in the title to this post, the lineups are pretty back-of-the-envelope, based on minutes played this past season for returning players and recruiting ratings for new players. Players who have both their first and last names listed are new to the program. In some cases, I’ve listed two players for one starting slot where a positional battle appears to be taking shape or two players will likely be sharing minutes evenly.

Off we go . . .

1. Purdue

• Departing players: Martin (transfer), Crump
• Projected lineup: Kramer, Moore, Grant, Hummel, Calasan/Johnson
• Comment: Have to make them favorites with their entire starting lineup back and their steady improvement over the past season, but will conference opponents adjust to their smaller lineup the second time around?

2. Wisconsin

• Departing players: Flowers, Butch, Stiemsma
• Projected lineup: Hughes, Bohannon, Krabbenhoft, Landry, Jared Berggren
• Comment: They lose their two best players, but I simply refuse to drop them any lower than #2 based on their history of never missing a beat after star players graduate. And it appears Ryan has already stocked his cupboards with talent for the next three years.

3. Michigan State

• Departing players: Neitzel, Naymick
• Projected lineup: Lucas, Walton/Allen, Morgan, Roe, Suton
• Comment: Best team on paper again; can the team play consistently enough to leapfrog Purdue and Wisconsin? Discuss.

4. Ohio State

• Departing players: Butler, Hunter, Koufos (early entry), Terwilliger
• Projected lineup: Anthony Crater/Jeremie Simmons, Turner, Diebler, Lighty, B.J. Mullens
• Comment: Plenty of talent for next season, with another top-notch recruiting class and some juco help. Matta has shown the ability to mesh talent quickly; replacing Butler’s leadership at point guard is the big challenge.

5. Minnesota

• Departing players: Coleman, McKenzie, Tollackson
• Projected lineup: Nolen, Westbrook, Hoffarber/Devoe Joseph, Johnson, Ralph Sampson
• Comment: Tubby has definitely raised their recruiting profile; will the new guys be a better fit for Tubby’s system and move them above .500 in conference play?

6. Illinois

• Departing players: Pruitt, Randle, Alexander (transfer)
• Projected lineup: McCamey, Meacham, Alex Legion/Jamar Smith, Tisdale, Stan Simpson
• Comment: A decent bet to move back up the standings based on their efficiency numbers. Legion and Smith will be counted on to return Illinois to a productive offensive team; there’s not a lot on the front line to fill Pruitt’s shoes. Looks like Weber will be reloading the next few years, though.

7. Michigan

• Departing players: Udoh (transfer), Coleman
• Projected lineup: Grady, Harris, Wright, Sims, Gibson
• Comment: They’ll have a pretty well-rounded starting lineup and a year of Beilein’s system under their belt, but the loss of Udoh makes them paper thin up front.

8. Penn State

• Departing players: Claxton, Walker, Hassell
• Projected lineup: Battle, Pringle/Morissey, Jackson, Cornley, Jones
• Comment: Are their returning players better than Indiana and Iowa’s new players? They’re likely to improve on offense as their young players continue to develop, but the numbers don’t point to any improvement at all on defense.

9. Iowa

• Departing players: Freeman (transfer), Johnson, Gorney, Loobey
• Projected lineup: Peterson, Matt Gatens, Kelly, Tate, Cole
• Comment: Influx of six new players, including two juco players; yet another team that looks a little thin up front.

10. Indiana

• Departing players: Gordon (early entry), D.J. White, Ellis (dismissal/transfer), Bassett (dismissal/transfer), Stemler, Mike White, Thomas (dismissal/transfer), Holman (transfer)
• Projected lineup: Devon Dumes, Nick Williams, Crawford, Taber, Tom Pritchard
• Comment: Jordan Crawford becomes their likely go-to scorer. Crean has found some perimeter players that should be able to contribute right away; but Pritchard (a high school teammate of Delvon Roe) will have to bear a very large burden up front for a fairly unheralded incoming freshman.

11. Northwestern

• Departing players: Okrzesik
• Projected lineup: Thompson, Moore, Williams, Ryan, Coble
• Comment: The good news is they’re losing less than 10% of minutes played from this season; the bad news is these are the same players that went 1-17 in the conference this season.

Conclusion: Three teams look like NCAA Tournament locks at this point, with Ohio State a good bet to join them. Minnesota and Illinois are the two other teams that appear to have enough pieces in place to potentially make the jump to the Big Dance. The bottom of the conference looks weaker than it might have a month ago, with the departures of Udoh and Freeman and the exodus of players from Blomington.

A lack of front-line depth is evident across the conference. Maybe, just maybe, Suton and Roe can take advantage of this by scoring consistently down low, thereby stabilizing MSU’s offensive performance.

Monday Night Links

Ekpe Udoh is no longer a Wolverine. Opportunity knocks for Zach Gibson.

Tony Freeman is no longer a Hawkeye. Opportunity knocks for Todd Lickliter’s son?

Armon Bassett, Jamarcus Ellis, DeAndre Thomas, and Eli Holman are no longer Hoosiers. Opportunity knocks for five brand new guys.

The Big Ten didn’t have a great recruiting year:

In the 2008 recruiting sweepstakes, the Big Ten (nine) ranked behind the SEC (20), Pac-10 (16), ACC (15) and Big East (14) in number of top-100 commitments.

Possible reasons: snow, academics, a bunch of new coaches. At least two of the nine top-100 guys are Spartans.

A Comcast-Big Ten Network deal appears to be drawing close. According to the linked article, an announcement will come in either (1) 2-3 weeks or (2) August. Both time periods are prior to the beginning of football season, so I suppose there’s no reason to get too specific.

One More Link: Delvon Roe is ahead of schedule on his knee rehab and should be ready to start working out next month, according to a WILX interview with Tom Izzo.  Izzo plans to bring him along slowly.

Season Review: Non-Lucas Freshmen Edition

With all the recruiting talk and football-related ranting around here, we’ve got a serious case of mission creep. Time to get back to what this blog has been known for over its long, storied, five-month existence: statistical analysis. Previously, we had been taking a look back at each Spartan player’s statistical performance over the 2007-08 season. The two regular contributors we hadn’t gotten to were Chris Allen and Durrell Summers.

Because their minutes were more limited, I’ve broken the stats out for these two freshmen into just two periods: the nonconference season and the conference season/postseason. We’ll start with Summers:

Durrell Summers
	Min/G	2PTA/G	2PT%	3PTA/G	3PT%	FTA/G	PT/G	FT%	OREB/G	DREB/G	TO/G
Nonconf (13)	14.4	4.2	55.6	0.8	40.0	2.0	7.2	80.8	1.4	2.4	1.2
Conf/Post (23)	8.9	2.0	44.7	0.5	58.3	1.3	3.6	69.0	0.6	1.0	0.7
2007-08 Totals	10.9	2.8	50.5	0.6	50.0	1.5	4.9	74.5	0.9	1.5	0.9

Summers got quite a bit of playing time in the nonconference season–just under 15 minutes per game–and used that time efficiently. He shot a high percentage from 2-point range, 3-point range, and the free throw line. And he rebounded the ball extremely well for a perimeter player. 3.8 rebounds in 14.4 minutes/game equates to 7.6 rebounds for a player playing close to 29 minutes/game.

Summers played at least 10 minutes in all but one of the 13 nonconference games and scored in double digits in five of those games–including 11 points vs. UCLA on 2-2 FG shooting and 7-7 FT shooting.

Both his minutes and production fell off quite a bit in conference and postseason play. He played 10 minutes or more in just 8 of those 23 games and scored in double digits just once–15 points vs. Purdue in MSU second conference game (a game Allen missed due to injury). His 2-point and FT shooting percentages dropped substantially and his rebounding numbers fell even more than his minutes played.

The obvious explanation is the tempo of games: Summers is an athlete who excels in open-court situations. There were a lot more of those in the nonconference season than in the conference season. To contribute next season, Summers will need to become more productive in the half-court offense. The goods news is that he has shown the ability to shoot from the outside, so that may not be a big leap. And he has the potential to be the next among a line of Spartan guards who can rebound (Bell, Thomas, Torbert).

Chris Allen
	Min/G	2PTA/G	2PT%	3PTA/G	3PT%	FTA/G	PT/G	FT%	OREB/G	DREB/G	TO/G
Nonconf (10)	13.8	3.5	42.9	3.4	29.4	1.1	6.9	81.8	0.5	0.7	0.8
Conf/Post (22)	14.0	2.1	40.4	3.0	39.4	1.0	6.0	77.3	0.5	0.8	1.0
2007-08 Totals	14.0	2.6	41.5	3.1	36.0	1.0	6.3	78.8	0.5	0.8	0.9

Allen’s stats were more consistent across the season. He averaged about 14 minutes per game in the 32 games he played (he missed 4 games due to an injury in December and early January). He took about two fewer shots per game in conference/postseason play than he did during nonconference play, but his scoring average only dropped by 0.9 points/game due to a 10-point increase in his 3-point shooting %.

Allen provided an edge for MSU in a number of conference games vs. teams that employed zone defenses, giving the Spartans another 3-point option to complement Neitzel. He hit two or more 3-pointers in conference games against Ohio State (twice), Northwestern, Indiana (twice), and Penn State–all of whom used the zone defense for a significant amount of the time vs. MSU. Allow me to take a moment to pat myself on the back for boldly predicting this on January 18:

Summary: I think Summers’ and Allen’s opportunities for minutes are going to get squeezed, particularly against tougher opponents. Izzo will have to decide if Summers deserves more minutes due to his production–with the potential payoff being playing him and Morgan together in smaller lineups come NCAA tournament time. Alternately, I can see him shifting the minutes toward Allen in the hopes he’ll adjust his three-point stroke to the college level to give the offense more ability to adjust to zone defenses.

What? You don’t think a sentence beginning with the phrase “Alternately, I can see . . .” qualifies as a bold prediction? Anyway, Izzo gave Allen 10+ minutes in all but two of MSU’s 21 games after Allen returned from injury.

Going into next season, Allen becomes MSU’s #1 three-point shooting threat. Allen will need to be a consistent outside shooting threat to keep defenses honest against Lucas, Morgan, and Suton. And he’s shown flashes of the ability to create mid-range looks when teams play him too closely outside the 3-point arc.

One positive statistical note is that Allen seemed to excel when given more minutes on the court to get into a shooting rhythm. In the five games he played 20 or more minutes (two of which were in the NCAA tournament), he averaged 13.8 points. Of course, part of the reason he played more minutes in those games was that he was scoring well. But, at minimum, he’s shown the potential to be a 15 point/game scorer as a starter. I’d go so far as to give him a decent shot at being MSU’s leading scorer next season.

Drew Neitzel’s graduation frees up 32 minutes per game of playing time. The lion’s share of those minutes will fall to Allen and Summers. I griped quite a bit this year about the multiple-point-guard lineups we kept running out on the court. There should be a lot less of that next year. Allen, Summers, and Morgan will fill the two wing slots in more traditional Izzo lineups. Allen and Summers will need to quickly transition from being spare parts as freshman to being productive core players as sophomores.

Links galore plus bonus BCS rant

The Old Spice Classic has announced the addition of Georgetown to their 2008 field. Rexrode notes this means MSU could potentially end up playing up to six teams from Fox Sport’s preliminary preseason top 20 in the nonconference season.

Donovan Kirk is off the board; he’s verbally committed to Miami of Florida. UMHoops notes the likelihood of the big man becoming a Spartan had declined after Izzo got commitments from both Sherman and Nix.

The Toledo Blade has a nice piece catching up with A.J. Granger. After a brief pro career, Granger has returned to his hometown in northwest Ohio and is working for a recruiting/hiring company. Regarding the 2000 championship team, he says this:

“I THINK WHAT made us successful as a team [at MSU] was we had a core group of guys that weren’t superstars when they showed up to school their freshmen year and we had a coach [Tom Izzo] that was extremely committed to driving people to get better. We grew over the course of four years to get to that accomplishment.

“It takes a lot of work to mesh and gel to play at that level to be very efficient at it, to always know what your teammates are doing on the floor. We were afforded that opportunity and I think that’s why we had the success we had.

“Our starting five played together for three full years before we won a title.

“I remember being on the floor in the championship game and Florida’s guys started yelling at each other and calling each other out. We just looked at each other and started smiling because we knew we had the game won because they gave up on each other and we didn’t do that.”

There are other ways to build a championship team, but what Granger describes is what Izzo is trying to do again. Going into the 2010 tournament, Lucas, Allen, Summers, and Morgan will have played together for three years . . .

Did anyone know that MSU runs something called the “numbered fast break” (see the last paragraph)? Maybe we should take up a collection for $39.95 to buy this Tom Izzo DVD and learn more.

Yet Another Basketball Blog has updated its super-fantastic, make-me-green-with-envy coaches rankings. The system elegantly rates coaches based on three components: recruiting, regular season performance (i.e., player development), and NCAA tournament performance (relative to regular season performance). Two parts have been posted at YABB. Highlights from part 1:

• Izzo is one of five coaches to have made the NCAA Tournament in all of the past 10 seasons. The others are Williams, Krzyzewski, Self, and Barnes.
• Izzo has the highest rating in the nation for exceeding expectations in the NCAA Tournament over the past 10 years.
• Izzo has an overall rating of 2.84, good for 10th in the country. The rating figure translates to the expected number of wins in the NCAA Tournament. On average, Izzo is expected to just about make the Elite Eight.
• Bill Carmody and Ed DeChellis are the two lowest-rated recruiters among BCS conference coaches who have coached at least four years at their current schools.

Part 2 of the ratings look at coaches on a conference-by-conference basis. Matta, Izzo, and Ryan rank 1-2-3 in the Big Ten, but they’re pretty bunched up, with respective ratings of 2.90, 2.84, and 2.70. Izzo relies on tournament performance, Ryan relies on regular season performance, and Matta’s pretty balanced across all three components. Pretty scary group of coaches, considering Smith, Painter, Beilein, and Crean don’t register an overall rating due to not having coached enough seasons in the Big Ten yet.

Finally, I can’t resist ranting about this Chicago Tribune article on Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney’s rationale for resisting movement toward a college football playoff system. This is a college basketball blog, so I’ll use this hook to justify including this item:

When people heckle Delany about his refusal to give up the Rose Bowl, he has been known to reply: “OK, then how about asking the ACC to give up its conference basketball tournament?”

File that one under “faulty analogies.” Last time I checked, the ACC wasn’t using the tradition of their conference basketball tournament as a rationale for eliminating the NCAA Tournament. I’m pretty sure if push came to shove, the folks at UNC, Duke, and Maryland would take the NCAA Tournament over the ACC Tournament.

There’s also this beauty from Fox Sports President Ed Goren:

“Five teams go back to campus as champions,” Goren said. “If you go into a different system, you have one winner and everyone else goes home a loser.”

First response: When did college football become pee wee soccer, where we want as many winners as possible?

Second response: This illustrates why we’re stuck with the current bowl system. Ultimately, college football is actually too popular for its own good. Fans of most Division 1 football teams will traverse great distances to watch bowl games which decide just about nothing besides which team’s fans get to buy t-shirts that say “20__ _______ Bowl Champions.” Only two teams are really playing for something. That makes the other 30+ bowl games pretty much equivalent in nature.

If you had a playoff system, the teams that didn’t make the playoffs would suddenly realize how meaningless their bowl games were and the games would then be reduced to the equivalent of the NIT–something even die-hard fans of the teams participating in it can’t quite take seriously.

From a philosophical perspective, a sports’s postseason games should fulfill two purposes:

• Determine a champion–i.e., “the best team.”
• Entertain fans of the sport.

To some extent, these two goals compete with one another. The NBA goes to one extreme–systematically determining a champion that is more often than not truly the best team in the league, with a relatively low level of drama along the way. NCAA basketball goes to the other extreme–proving entertaining, do-or-die games at the expense of some of the best teams getting upset early in the tournament.

The BCS system manages to do neither thing well. There’s almost always controversy as to whether the teams competing for the championship are the most deserving, since there’s no objective standard as to who gets to compete in the one postseason game that matters. And the college football postseason isn’t all that entertaining since only one of the 30+ games counts for anything besides mere bragging rights.

In the end, I guess the current system has managed to make college football as popular among the fans of major college teams as it is. But the system (which has been cemented in place for at least another year) detracts from the sport’s appeal to a broader audience. The closest comparable system for determining a champion in the sports world is boxing–where some guys no one has ever heard of set up match-ups they think will be competitive and financially rewarding.

This probably won’t be the last rant on this topic. The BCS system is perhaps the primary reason I just can’t get as excited about college football as I do about college basketball . . .

The Scoop on Jamil Wilson

Interesting article on Jamil Wilson by scout.com’s Sam Webb in Thursday’s Detroit News.  Wilson is a 6′7″ forward from Racine, Wisconsin who is likely Izzo’s #1 target for the remaining one or two slots in MSU’s 2009 recruiting class.

As previously speculated, Wilson confirms that Crean taking the IU job led Izzo to recruit Wilson more aggressively:

“Michigan State has been on and off because I know Izzo and Crean (ex-Marquette coach Tom Crean) are boys,” Wilson told to Scout.com in March. “It’s been kind of on and off with them.”

According to Wilson, part of the reason for the Spartans’ hot-then-cold pursuit strategy was his status as a crucial target for Izzo’s good friend and former protégé, Tom Crean. Now that Crean is a Big Ten adversary at Indiana, the restrictor plates have apparently been removed from the race for Wilson’s services.

“Actually, I’ve been getting a lot more attention from Michigan State ever since the Tom Crean move (to Indiana),” Wilson reported. “I think that played a big role in everything.

“(Not hearing from Michigan State for a while) is not really a big deal. Actually, it shows me what kind of person Tom Izzo is and how much respect he has for other people. In order to earn respect you have to give respect. That just shows me what kind of person he is off of the court. He actually cares for other people.”

That last paragraph is encouraging.  Other bits from the article:

• Korie Lucious (a Milwaukee native) has been working Wilson for MSU.
• Izzo is up against stiff competition for Wilson.  In addition to MSU, Wilson will be visiting Duke, UCLA, and Kansas–and one of Tennessee, Texas, and Purdue.  Interesting that Purdue is on the radar; Painter has clearly raised their profile.  The article indicates that IU, now that Crean is there, is an option. Unclear whether home-state Wisconsin is a factor.
• Getting playing time early in his career will be a big factor in his decision.  This could work against us, as Morgan (as a senior) and Allen/Summers (as juniors) would be manning the wing positions in the 2009-10 season.  Sounds like Wilson is more of a wing player than a post player, despite being listed as a power forward on the recruiting sites.  Roe would presumably be the man at the 4 spot, as a sophomore, for 2009-10.  But imagine the athleticism of a small lineup of Lucas, Allen, Morgan, Wilson, and Roe.  OK, snap out of it.
• He plans to announce next March 8, the birthday of this mother, who passed away from cancer last year.  Maybe Izzo fills the third scholarship slot in the early signing period and holds the fourth slot for Wilson?  If Wilson goes elsewhere, he banks the scholarship for the 2010 class?

Speaking of Crean and Izzo:

• Inside the Hall reports that Indiana has amended their self-imposed sanctions to give Crean 10 days on the road to recruit.
• Mlive has video up (courtesy of WLAJ) of Izzo’s comments at the recent MSU-Lugnuts baseball game.  After watching this, I’m even more convinced the Bulls speculation is simply a function of Izzo being (1) naturally forthright and (2) someone who can’t resist thinking about new possibilities. (Hat tip: Spartan Sports Page.)

This is the third post in nine days on recruiting.  Am I getting caught up in the college recruiting speculation vortex?

Thursday Links

The Chicago Sun-Times has a couple articles up on the Izzo-Bulls story: This one say he’s too short/sensitive.  More constructively, this one provides some details on his contract:

Chances are Izzo is interested in causing enough nervousness among Michigan State officials that they come up with more money to keep him. According to a USA Today survey, Izzo had the fourth-highest salary among college coaches at $1,735,964 per year. That was before Indiana’s Tom Crean and Kansas’ Bill Self recently passed him. Crean and Izzo share the same agent, Lonnie Cooper.

Izzo’s Michigan State contract also reportedly includes a buyout if he leaves to coach a pro team — $2 million if he leaves before April 30, $1 million if he leaves between next month and April 30, 2010 — but none if he leaves for another college team.

The speculation that Izzo is using the position to leverage more money from MSU (the first article uses the phrase “power play”) is exactly that–speculative–as Joe Rexrode says in his latest post on the topic.  As I commented yesterday, I think Izzo’s natural friendliness/openness/competitiveness may tend to lead people into think he’s more interested in pursuing other coach positions than he really is.  Hopefully, there won’t be much more to say about this topic . . .

College Basketball Chronotope lists the five major questions facing the Big Ten for next basketball season.  Among them are who will be the fifth best team in the conference after the likely top four of Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.  I’ve been working on a really, really preliminary look at the outlook for next year’s conference standings, which I will roll out in the next week or so.

One question from the list has been answered, at least partially: Kosta Koufos will be declaring for the NBA draft, but not hiring an agent so that he can still decide to return to school. Buckeye Banter points out that Koufos tended to struggle this season against other top big men. At the moment, he’s projected as a late first round pick. He could also decide to go play for some serious drachma in Greece (he’d actually be paid in Euros, but that doesn’t sound as cool).

Royce White, a 6′7″ junior forward from Minnesota who had drawn interest from Michigan State, has verbally committed to the Gophers.  Gopher Nation is pleased Tubby has locked up a top in-state guy, given the number of Minnesota high school players who have left the state in recent years.

Lastly, Big Ten Country puts a nice spin on the combined performance of the MSU football and basketball teams over the last year:

MSU was one of the more successful overall programs in the league when you consider both sports. The football team began a new era under Mark Dantonio and started to shed its reputation as one that fell apart down the stretch. . . .

. . . This [basketball] program is still the best in the conference until further notice and can be expected to be back. And their season was hardly a bad one. But it could have been more then it was.

What are the odds we can turn “one of the more” into “the most” next year?

Bulls looking at Izzo?

You can thank TMadison’s comment to the previous post for this morning jolt: Yahoo is reporting that Izzo may be under consideration for the open Bulls coaching spot. I don’t want to blow this out of proportion, but since Izzo himself has commented–and doesn’t rule it out–I thought it was worth passing along. Here are his comments:

“I’m not counting out any (job openings) because you can’t,” Izzo said. “College or pro.

“I go back and forth on (coaching in the NBA),” he continued. “I still think it’s the ultimate level. There is something about it. I look at it and say, ‘It’s a real challenge.’ But I love what I do too. I go down and look at what the Pistons (coaches) do in preparation and I think, ‘That’s insane.’

“But I look at what I do in terms of recruiting and I think, ‘That’s insane.’ ”

You can still sense that drive to prove he could succeed at the highest level in those comments. Working in our favor is that Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf may not want a college guy after the failed Tim Floyd experiment. Former Pistons and Pacers coach Rick Carlisle is reportedly the favorite to get the job.

Also, this part of the report just doesn’t ring true to me:

The Bulls are under the impression, sources said, that Izzo is eager to speak with them. Some believe he has grown restless in East Lansing, and it’s believed he would’ve become the Kansas coach had Bill Self taken the Oklahoma State job.

Too early to panic at this point, but let’s not rule it out . . .

Update: Joe Rexrode talked to Izzo this morning:

• Izzo is in Milwaukee to visit Korie Lucious and recruit Jamil Wilson.
• He confirms the Buls haven’t contacted him but that he would listen to them.
• He was apparently bothered by the second quote from the Yahoo article I posted above.
• Rexrode views the odds of Izzo leaving as very small.

My thoughts at this point:

• One hand: Can see Izzo’s competitiveness driving him to the NBA at some point, especially since he has said he doesn’t intend to coach into his 60s.
• Other hand: Just not sure his high-intensity approach would work in the NBA–a star-centered league with a grind-it-out regular season.
• Chances of him going to the NBA seem better than going to another college program.  Have to believe he views winning another national title at MSU and firmly establishing the program as an elite one as a bigger challenge than winning at a school like Kansas/IU that already has a nationally-elite reputation.
• Appreciate that Izzo is honest with the media about listening to job offers.  Many/most coaches would listen privately but deny it publicly.

Another recruiting post

It’s a streak, baby!

Joe Rexrode is reporting that junior big man Derrick Nix of Detroit Pershing has verbally committed to MSU. And at 6′9″, 275 pounds, he’s definitely a BIG man. Scout.com has him as a three-star prospect, for whatever that’s worth. The Free Press says he played very well this past weekend with his AAU team, The Family, in a tournament in Pittsburgh. Rexrode reports the following:

I haven’t seen Nix play, but from what I understand he’s extremely strong around the basket, a true center, and he needs to keep improving his lateral movement. I haven’t seen him in the 2009 rankings, but Hosey said Pitt, Ohio State and others are starting to show interest, and this is the time that juniors really start establishing their rankings on the AAU circuit.

He also speculates this commitment could give Izzo a leg up on Keith Appling, a sophomore guard who plays with Nix at Pershing.

Nix joins fellow big guy Garrick Sherman (also a three-star guy according to scout.com) in MSU’s 2009 class. Here’s how the roster looks over the next several years as of the moment, starting with this past season as the base:

	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Points	Lucas	Lucas	Lucas	Lucas
	Walton	Walton
	Neitzel	Lucious	Lucious	Lucious	Lucious
Wings	Morgan	Morgan	Morgan
	Allen	Allen	Allen	Allen
	Summers	Summers	Summers	Summers
	Dahlman	Dahlman	Dahlman
	(Thornton)	Thornton	Thornton	Thornton	Thornton
Bigs	Suton	Suton	Sherman	Sherman	Sherman	Sherman
	Gray	Gray	Nix	Nix	Nix	Nix
	Ibok	Ibok
	Herzog	Herzog	Herzog	Herzog
	Naymick	Roe	Roe	Roe	Roe
		Green	Green	Green	Green

Notes/observations:

• I’ve broken the players out into three categories. The 2 and 3 spots (wings) tend to be interchangeable in Izzo’s system, as do the 4 and 5 spots (bigs).
• I’ve included preferred walk-on Austin Thornton, as he could be a contributor at some point. He used the 13th scholarship freed by Maurice Joseph’s transfer this past season but will revert to nonscholarship status next year. (The parentheses mean he redshirted this season.)
• This assumes no one goes pro early. Morgan, Lucas, and Roe (not necessarily in that order) would be the most likely candidates to do so.
• It also assumes Dahlman doesn’t redshirt this next season, which is a possibility.
• Izzo could add two more players to the 2009 class. If he fills both spots, though, that leaves only two spots for 2010–and just one if Dahlman redshirts. So it sure seems like there’s only one spot left for a 2009 recruit.
• And I’d say Izzo definitely needs a wing player in the 2009 class. There are no scholarship wing players committed to the program past the 2010-11 season–compared to four big men.
• So does that rule out 6′10″ DaShonte Riley–he of the five-star rating but unenthusiastic message board banter–from becoming a Spartan?

I’ve got a version of this table extending back to the beginning of the Izzo era that I am polishing up and will bust out at some point.

Unloading my minimal knowledge about recruiting

You’ve probably noticed at this point that I don’t have much to say about recruiting. This results from some combination of (1) a personal outlook that tends to focus on the present and (2) a lack of patience to wade through all the message board chatter on recruiting. But with the late signing period starting yesterday, I thought I’d put up a post on the topic.

Happy Valley Hoops has a handy up-to-date list of Big Ten signings for the 2008 class, reflecting those signings that occurred yesterday and decommitments of previous signees (both occurring at Indiana). Warning: The number of stars on the recruiting sites for Ohio State’s incoming class can lead to temporary blindness.

Izzo had fulled all his open scholarship slots by signing Delvon Roe, Draymond Green, and Korie Lucious during the early signing period last fall. Here’s the official MSU bios on the three new guys:

Delvon Roe (F, 6-8, 220, Lakewood, Ohio/St. Edward High School) - 2007-08 Sporting News First-Team All-American … 2007 EA Sports National Junior of the Year … 2007 EA Sports All-America second team and Parade Magazine All-America fourth team … Averaged 22.5 points and 11.5 rebounds as a junior at St. Edward High School, leading his team to a 25-1 record, the Ohio Division 1 semifinals, a No. 23 final national ranking and a No. 5 Midwest Regional ranking by USA Today … Led St. Edwards in blocks (60) and steals (69) and was second in assists … Shot 40 percent from 3-point range as a junior … Runner-up for 2007 Ohio Mr. Basketball honors … Named 2007 Player of the Year in Ohio by the Cleveland Plain Dealer … All-Ohio Division I honoree … Participated in the 2007 USA Basketball Men’s Youth Development Festival, averaging 30.3 points (tournament best) and 10.3 rebounds … Ranked the No. 9 player overall in the nation by Scout.com, including the No. 2 power forward … Rated the No. 7 player in the ESPN 150, including the No. 2 power forward … Averaged 20.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.2 steals as a sophomore … Named all-state honorable mention and all-district as a sophomore … Averaged 16.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks as a freshman, earning all-conference accolades … Plays AAU basketball for King James Shooting Stars … Plays for Coach Eric Flannery at St. Edward High School.

Draymond Green (F, 6-7, 230, Saginaw, Mich./Saginaw) - Averaged 25 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and three steals as a junior … Led Saginaw High School to the Michigan Class A State Championship and a 26-1 record … 2007 Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News Dream Team Member, the lone junior on the team … Shot 52 percent from the field and 73 percent from the foul line … First-team all-area and all-conference selection … Ranked the No. 98 player overall in the nation by Scout.com, including the No. 29 power forward … Rated the No. 77 player in the ESPN 150, including the No. 21 power forward … Averaged 12 points and 11 rebounds as a sophomore … Plays AAU basketball for the The Family, having previously played for the Michigan Mustangs … Plays for Coach Lou Dawkins at Saginaw High School.

Korie Lucious (G, 5-10, 165, Milwaukee, Wis./St. Pius XI High School) - Averaged 24.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.3 steals and 2.6 rebounds as a junior at St. Pius XI High School, leading his team to a 19-4 record … Shot 48.3 percent from two-point range, 42.3 percent from 3-point range and 82.5 percent from the foul line … Named the 2007 Classic Eight Conference Player of the Year … First-team all-area selection … Participated in the 2007 USA Basketball Men’s Youth Development Festival, averaging 18.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists … Ranked the No. 90 player overall in the nation by Scout.com, including the No. 11 point guard … Rated the No. 85 player in the ESPN 150, including the No. 9 point guard … Attended Rufus King High School as a sophomore, averaging 12.1 points, 6.5 assists and 2.3 steals … Plays AAU basketball for DTA Wisconsin … Plays for Coach Joel Classen at St. Pius XI High School.

Roe, of course, comes in with the highest profile and has the best shot at playing regularly as a freshman. Suton will play his 25-30 minutes at the 4/5 slots, but beyond that things are pretty wide open. Morgan may slide over to play some minutes at the 4 spot, as he did this past season, but I’d expect those minutes to go down with Neitzel’s 30-35 minutes to replace among the perimeter guys. Gray’s ability to contribute for more than 10-15 minutes/game is questionable at this point. And Ibok and Herzog are unlikely to contribute enough on offense to merit substantial minutes on a consistent basis.

I only saw Roe play once on TV–the game in which he hurt his knee. From what I saw, he could be the ideal Izzo big man–less of a traditional low-post scoring threat, but more of an all-around big guy who can rebound, defend, and handle the ball. And apparently he really wants to win, which is something Izzo tends to like in his players (to put it mildly). All indications are that his knee will be fully recovered by November, but missing live basketball for nearly all of his senior season could be a factor in how quickly he adapts to the college game.

Lucious’ minutes are likely to be limited as a freshman with Lucas and Walton ahead of him. With Walton’s graduation in 2009, Lucious will become the primary back-up to Lucas for the next two seasons (assuming Lucas doesn’t go pro early).

Green’s minutes are a wildcard going in the next season. They may hinge on whether Gray can get himself back into Izzo’s good graces and become a consistent contributor as a 20+ minute player.

Looking forward to the 2009-10 season, four scholarships will be available, with Suton, Walton, Gray, and Ibok leaving the program after next season. 6′10″ Garrick Sherman from Kenton, Ohio is the only 2009 recruit to verbally commit at this point.

Izzo could hold one of those slots for the 2010 class, when only two slots will open up due to departing seniors (Morgan, Dahlman). And if Dahlman were to redshirt this next season (ala David Thomas), that would leave only one opening in 2010.

I’d think Izzo’d be looking for at least one wing player, if not two of them, for the 2009 class, since there are none in the current class. Jamil Wilson appears to be the best case scenario.  Scholarship players currently expected to be in the program going into the 2009-10 season:

• Point guards (2): Lucas (junior), Lucious (sophomore)
• Wings (4): Morgan (senior), Dahlman (senior/rs junior), Allen (junior), Summers (junior) [plus walk-on rs sophomore Auston Thornton, who could contribute at some point]
• Big men (4): Herzog (rs junior), Roe (sophomore), Green (sophomore), Sherman (freshman)

There you go: Everything I know about the Spartan basketball recruiting outlook at this point. Those of you who follow this stuff more closely than I do should feel free to supplement/correct/dismiss my observations.