Splitting up the PT

Commenter Ryan posted the following the other day:

One thing I think I’ve been seeing in games that I haven’t seen talked about anywhere is that it seems like Walton is playing far, far worse than I’ve ever seen him. He’s never been great with the ball, but I’ve seen a lot of ridiculous turnovers the last six or eight games. His defense hasn’t seemed to be super-impressive this year either. I think it may be time to give six or seven of his minutes to Isaiah Dahlman and see what he can do with them. I also can’t see any reason why Allen and Summers are getting the same playing time. Summers has shown a willingness to rebound, set picks, etc. while in the game, while Allen is a black hole on both ends of the court if his shot isn’t falling. I think the ideal solution would be to start Neitzel/Summers, have Lucas and Walton/Dahlman as the backups at the point and 2, and pair Allen with Kebler on the garbage time team for the time being.

(Advantage of posting a comment on a fledgling blog: The blogger will get so excited somebody commented that he’ll cite the entire thing in a future post.)

He raises an interesting question: With Walton’s recent offensive struggles (18 points on 24 FG attempts in his last 8 games) and Allen’s return to health, how does the playing time at the perimter slots break down for the rest of the year?

Here are the minutes/game averages to date this season (note they add to more than 200 minutes/game due to missed games by some players):

Perimeter Players

1. Neitzel: 30.8
2. Morgan: 27.6
3. Lucas: 24.1
4. Walton: 22.1
5. Summers: 13.9
6. Allen: 12.7
7. Dahman: 3.5

Big Men

1. Suton: 26.3
2. Naymick: 19.1
3. Gray: 17.1
4. Ibok: 5.8
5. Herzog: 5.4

I think the minutes among the big men are pretty well defined at this point.  Suton’s going to play 25-30 minutes.  Naymick and Gray will split the other 40-50 minutes (depending on how often MSU goes small with Morgan at power forward).  Ibok and Herzog will only play when they need to absorb fouls against a post player or we REALLY want to block some shots.

The PT at the perimeter slots is getting more scarce, though.  Let’s assume Izzo doesn’t use the small lineup very much during the rest of Big Ten play, as most Big Ten teams play two legitimate big men and he’s not going to risk foul trouble with Morgan guarding post players.  That means there are 120 minutes to split between six players (seven if you count Dahlman).  In any close game, Neitzel and Morgan are going to play 30 minutes each, barring foul trouble.  So now we’re down to 60 minutes to split between 4-5 players.  Let’s examine those five players:

• Lucas: He’s clearly becoming the one guy on the floor who can create on offense outside of a set play at any given time.  I think he needs to be on the floor for 25 minutes per game.
• Walton: Offensively he’s clearly regressing.  But his defense can be such an asset.  He combines the quickness and tenaciousness of a point guard with the ability to guard larger players because of his strength.  (Remember the story about how he could bench press more than anyone else on the team?)  I think Izzo will play him at least 20 minutes/game.  Obviously, he has to get his shooting touch back, at least on wide open outside shooting opportunities.

So basically two of Neitzel, Lucas, and Walton are going to be on the floor at any given time (30+25+20=75).  This is probably a good thing from the perspective of limiting turnovers.

• Summers: I agree with Ryan that he’s been clearly more productive than Allen.  He’s much more versatile.  But here’s the thing: The parts of the game he excels at (mid-range shooting, attacking the basket in transition, rebounding from the perimeter) are exactly the same things Morgan does well.  And we know Morgan is going to be out there at small forward 75%+ of the time.
• Allen: The one thing he brings that Summers doesn’t is three-point shooting.  Summers is shooting a higher percentage right now, but on a lot fewer attempts.  And this was Allen’s reported bread-and-butter coming into college.  My guess is that Izzo is going to make sure Allen continues to get minutes because he’s going to need another pure three-point threat beyond Neitzel at some point (example: Allen’s two three-pointers against Ohio State’s zone).
• Dahlman: I really see no light at the end of the tunnel for Dahlman.  The odds are high he transfers after the season.  As bad as Walton has been offensively, Dahlman has never shown any glimpse of the scoring acumen he possessed in high school.  His outside shot takes too long to get off and isn’t very accurate when he does get it off.  And he’s not big or athletic enough to be a threat going to the basket.

Summary: I think Summers’ and Allen’s opportunities for minutes are going to get squeezed, particularly against tougher opponents.  Izzo will have to decide if Summers deserves more minutes due to his production–with the potential payoff being playing him and Morgan together in smaller lineups come NCAA tournament time.  Alternately, I can see him shifiting the minutes toward Allen in the hopes he’ll adjust his three-point stroke to the college level to give the offense more ability to adjust to zone defenses.

As far as Walton goes, one solution is what I suggested in the Ohio State game recap: When Lucas and Walton are both in the game, put the ball in Lucas’ hands most of the time.  Walton can then focus on (1) defense and (2) hitting open shots.  Walton is not a bad spot-up shooter.  But he can’t create his own shot or shots for other the way Lucas can.

Thanks for sparking this post, Ryan.  Feel free to rebutt.