Note: We’ll focus mainly on overall team performance today. I hope to do season recaps for all the key returning players over the next few weeks.
Michigan State finishes the year with a record of 27-9. This record can be broken down a couple different ways:
- Home: 17-0
- Away: 4-6
- Neutral: 6-3
- Nonconference: 12-1
- Conference: 12-6
- Postseason: 3-2
Most of those numbers look pretty good. It’s those pesky losses to Iowa and Penn State that put a damper on things. Reverse those losses and you have an away record of 6-4 and a conference record of 14-4. It still wouldn’t have been enough to win the Big Ten championship, but Wisconsin set the bar pretty high by going 16-2.
Setting aside the Penn State and Iowa losses, which were clearly unacceptable for a team that hoped to compete for a conference title and a Final Four berth, I think there are two factors that diminish what seems like a pretty decent win-loss record on paper.
First, the fan base was hopeful this would be the year the Spartans would break the drought of Big Ten championships since 2001. As much as Izzo has focused on Final Fours as the measure of the program, I think he, the players, and the fan base all have the sense that we have to win our own conference at some point in order to maintain a position as an elite basketball program nationally. The unbalanced conference schedule clearly cost MSU a shot at at least a share of a couple conference titles over the last seven years, but until MSU wins a title, that monkey will be stuck on the program’s back.
Second, it seemed like nearly all of MSU’s nine losses were of a particularly angst-inducing variety:
- Two upset losses against second-tier teams (Iowa, Penn State)
- Three losses against good teams where MSU didn’t seem to have the mental fortitude to respond to the opponent’s superior play in the first half (Purdue, IU, Memphis)
- Three losses in games MSU outplayed the other team for 30+ minutes and gave the game away at the end (UCLA, Ohio State, Wisconsin in the BTT)
The only run-of-the-mill loss where it felt like we just got beat by a team that played a little better than us for 40 minutes was the loss to Wisconsin in Madison. And even in that game, MSU could have made it close by hitting half a dozen open mid-range looks.
MSU was ranked at #8 in both preseason polls. Based on making the Sweet Sixteen, I’d think they’d move up a few spots from their ranks of 18/20 in the final regular season polls. Kenpom and Sagarin both have them at #15 at the moment. So, again, take away the Penn State and Iowa losses and they’re not terribly far off from preseason expectations.
In the end, it all boils down to inconsistency. MSU was too inconsistent both from a game-to-game perspective and within a number of key games. Going into the conference season, I had hoped that MSU’s offensive balance would make them more consistent than the other conference contenders. The opposite turned out to be true, as we previously illustrated in graphical format:
Because of the team’s inconsistency, this season review doesn’t contain a lot of statistical analysis. Any particular average or trend didn’t seem to matter much from game to game. As much as anything, Izzo’s task for next season is to figure out how to get the team to play with more confidence on a consistent basis. Sounds simple, but it’s a much tougher task than fixing a tactical or personnel issue.
At times this year, it just looked like the MSU players had lost the ability to play basketball intuitively. They couldn’t respond to anything that was outside the game plan that had been scripted. That sense did fade some toward the end of the year–up until the Memphis game, at least–as Lucas developed into an offense leader and the team seemed to play less tightly. Hopefully, that late-season trend carries through to their offseason work and the beginning of next season.
Major positives from this season:
- MSU’s status as a team that rebounds the ball offensively was maintained. They finished the season ranked 9th in the nation in offensive rebounding % (39.5).
- They made progress on the turnover problem at the end of the year, one indication Izzo did improve the team’s confidence over the course of the year. They turned it over on 20%+ of possessions in only 2 of their last 11 games.
- The rapid development of Kalin Lucas as the team’s key playmaker.
- Suton’s improved productivity, particularly late in the year.
Major negatives:
- The failure to contend for the Big Ten championship.
- The collapse against Wisconsin in Indy. If they hold on to the lead against Wisconsin and take care of business in the final vs. Illinois, I think this season would have swung toward at least meeting preseason expectations. And there would have been a banner to hang at the Breslin Center this November. As it is, MSU had only two games that could be considered signature wins–the victory over Texas and the Senior Day blowout of IU.
- Inconsistency–both at the team and player levels. Neitzel struggled to string together good shooting nights. And Morgan went into a long funk in the second half of the season where he seemed to completely lose his confidence. Morgan becoming a consistent offensive force will be a big key for next year.
- Walton’s regression on offense. He became a severe liability on the offensive end, both in the inability to score and the loss of ball-handling efficiency. One series in the Memphis game illustrated this: He made two or three consecutive entry passes to Suton in the post, only for Suton to have to pass it back to him because his man immediately doubled down. For all the toughness and leadership Walton brings to the team, he simply has to be more productive on the court next year.
- Gray’s regression everywhere on the court. I fear the odds of him being a major contributor in his final season next year are pretty slim. And now he has a knee surgery to recover from.
The team’s underperformance this year has raised continuing concerns from the fan base about the state of the program. Are we an “elite” team? There’s no question that MSU has failed to ascend again to the heights of the 1999-2001 teams. But Izzo has also managed to maintain a consistency (11 consecutive NCAA appearances) that has eluded other top programs:
- Neither Florida nor Ohio State made the NCAA tournament this year.
- Kentucky barely did so.
- Syracuse has played in two straight NITs.
- Duke didn’t make the Sweet Sixteen for the second consecutive year.
- UNC had to pry away a Hall-of-Fame coach to regain its footing as an elite team.
- Illinois has seen a rapid decline since its NCAA final appearance.
- IU is in for a long rebuilding process.
This is not to say any of us should be satisfied with the results of last few Spartan seasons. But any criticisms of Izzo or the team should be balanced with an appreciation of the program’s consistency relative to other programs that have reached the peak of the college basketball heap only to experience a major plummet. (Irony: a team that has been pretty consistent from season to season was dramatically inconsistent within the scope of this past season.)
I think part of the shift in the outlook of the fan base is the length that Izzo’s been at the helm now. At 33, I’m old enough to remember a time when a 27-win season and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen would have been reason to dance in the streets. Now, it’s viewed as a disappointment. There are a whole group of current MSU students and recent graduates who don’t remember anything before the Izzo years.
Izzo has raised the bar, and I know he’d have it no other way. Expectations will again be high next year–with a nonconference schedule to match those expectations. As a sports fan, that can actually be a tougher position emotionally; last season was arguable the most enjoyable MSU basketball season since 1998, as there were no expectations going into the season. But at the end of the day, you want your team to be in a position to win championships. Izzo still has the program in a position do so. The challenge is to pick it up that one notch and bring home some banners.
We do not want to sound like uofm football fans!
In your analysis of the groupings of the losses, i found the
3 when we were leading, had the game in hand most distressing. The funny thing is that during the nonconference schedule, one of the achievements this team had was winning close games and winning at the end. I remember saying after one game (not sure which) that the Davis, Ager, Brown team would’ve lost in the end. Several people agreed with me. I always had a funny sick feeling in close games Davis and Ager’s senior year, maybe the lack of depth was a factor too.
Winning at the end takes great defense and the ability to deliver stops, then, some consistence offense on the other end of the court. They have shown flashes of this but again have been very inconsistent with one of the biggest disappointments some key turnovers from all 3 point guards at key moments near the end of games. Most disappointing because all 3 had excellent assist to to ratios most of the year.
Looking at a 3 point guard lineup, hopefully the defensive improvement of Allen and Summers will make a huge difference. I’d love to see Luscious and Dahlman redshirt next year. Have Walton lead the team, sub out Lucas and be a defensive stopper with improved offense. His clutch free-throw shooting at the end of games is a sign he can contribute more offensively, though obviously nowhere near Lucas’ level.
Great read from ESPN about teams in the final four and not being able to maintain consistency. I hate to admit it but my husband and I were rooting hard for AZ and KY to not make the dance, to decrease the number of schools in our elite group of consecutive NCAA appearances. How ironic will it be if OSU and FL play for the nit title one year after playing for the NCAA title? This and the first four number one seeds to actually reach the final four will be trivia questions to remember for years to come.
From the ESPN article: “I think the difficulty is there are really quality programs that are really very even,” Maryland coach Gary Williams said. “A lot more schools around the country that don’t have football have figured it out that if you pour most of your budget into men’s basketball, it’s going to generate a tremendous amount of income. The level and the numbers are way up compared to 10 or 15 years ago in terms of teams that take it serious enough to be good enough to play in the NCAA tournament.”
We have to remember how lucky we are to have Izzo, not only for his great coaching ability but also for his integrity, class, hard work, graduating players. He would make a phenomenal AD but i hope that is 15 years away!
LASTLY, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK KJ!
Like the other readers, i have really enjoyed your site, it is now my favorite. I didn’t realize until the big dance, how little time i even checked the mlive board and how a few morons can ruin any discussion there.
Great job, great analysis, great links, nice to share with you and the other contributors, the ups and downs of this inconsistent yet still successful season.
One of both Drew’s biggest achievements is keeping the successive dance appearances alive last year. They also have done a good job bridging the 2005 final four team with hopefully some success in the next year: They will still share in any championships earned next year by their growth as a team this year and mentoring of the freshmen and actually all other players on the team.
Next year we will have the 3 redshirt senior bigs and Walton: the improvement of Lucas, Allen, Summers: and the reemergence of Morgan, to build on. Thank you again for all your time, effort, and hard work.
It is amazing what expectations can do to how you remember a season. THe Penn St. and Iowa losses will leave a bad taste in my mouth, yet I should remember how well we performed down the stretch in games against Purdue at home and the first two games of the NCAA tourney.
I’m not sure if anyone mentioned it before, but I am curious how the starting rotation will look next year. There seems to be a lot of variations that Izzo can work with.
I have been trying to locate information on next year’s schedule. I read the link about the non-conference schedule, but where can you find this info at? Kansas at home? That’s a big game.
Thanks for the kind words, wifeofaspartan. And good point on the wins in tight games during the nonconference schedule. Forgot to mention those.
I don’t think they post an official schedule until later in the summer, TMadison. A little more flexibility than with football schedules. Playing a nonconference game at Ford Field would be cool and a good experience for the team.
Sadly, Neitzel didn’t make it out of the first round of the 3-point contest last night. They need to change the format so you shoot the shots sprinting around screens.
Man, you’ve touched on many things I’ve been thinking in the last 4 months. One thing to realize about the Big Ten drought is that there has been very good other teams in the interim, and that before this year MSU hasn’t had a true point guard since Mateen. Bell filled in admirably with his experience in the system, Taylor always over-valued his abilities, Cotton never played a regular season game, Neitzel (in spite of all great things he is) does not have the size or the speed to create unbalance in the defense when he has the ball in his hands, and Walton can’t shoot. Also note that we’ve been rolling out an all under 6′ back-court for two straight years now. Take a look at the size disparity between this year’s team, Wisconsin, and the 99-01 MSU teams. Meanwhile Illinois and Wisconsin and Ohio State have rolled out Deron Williams, Devin Harris, Mike Conley, to highlight, and even a Michael Flowers was a bad match up for our undersized back-court of the last two seasons. On top of that, none of Torbert, Brown, Ager, or Morgan (the 2’s and the 3’s) were good ball handlers under pressure or in traffic. I think a lot of the inconsistency of the past few years have come from the simple fact that it was relatively easy to through the team off by disrupting their sets since very few guys were able to improvise consistently in the half-court. This was especially true in conference play, where all opponents are familiar and can came a particular motivation of distaste for the ESPN’s B10 basketball darling (you have to admit ESPN LOVES Izzo). It seems like it created a vicious circle situation where Izzo doesn’t trust his ball handler, ball handler improvises to awful ends, ball handler gets giant earful, ball handler loses confidence, Izzo trusts ball handler even less. I think Lucas is a really great addition here, because he has the ability and the gumption to break out of this mold. And I don’t think we appreciate enough how remarkable it is for an undersized, really pretty small guy to have as much impact as he’s had with the competition he’s gone up against in is first year. I really think he’s going to have to rebel a little bit from Izzo’s ways, and I think this will be good for everyone involved, especially us, the fans.
Here is one thing I wanted to get other people’s opinion on: what do people think of dismissing Gray from the team? Or at least helping him engineer a transfer. Is that too radical? It seems like Gray has zero ability or interest in becoming any better than he is. He looks like he listens to Izzo and all during games, but it doesn’t seem to translate into an ounce of improvement. He seems all too happy to throw down a dunk once or twice a game, which is cute when you’re an exciting freshman prospect, really embarrassing when you’ve been around for 4 years. Am I just too biased because I still think of the somewhat highly touted recruit as he was coming in? But isn’t that a complete downer for the other players and a crappy reminder of any perceived underachievement of the program to have Gray around adding close to nothing? I suppose I know the answer here is I am being unreasonable, but man how I dislike Gray.
Good analysis KJ. I agree that this team was maddeningly inconsistent. Watching the Penn State and Iowa games was like two veritable root canals at the dentist’s office. It did also seem as if the team lost a bit of its swagger after some pretty impressive road performances in November; the BYU game in particular – coming back in the second half in front of a hostile crowd – was never replicated in the big ten.
I also agree with the point made about point guards and height in the back court, which I think largely explain the scoring droughts this team suffered through at critical junctures. Lucas is not a tall PG, but he is the first guard MSU has had who can get into the lane, and he can do so at will. I hope he comes back with a better outside shot, and gains the experience to make better decisions. I don’t know about Lucas’ temperament. I recently watched the 2000 final on ESPN classic and was struck by Cleaves’ leadership of the team. Everything about his body language screamed, I am the top dog and if you do what I say we will win this game!” Will Lucas become that player? I think we can agree that Lucas has the tools to become a great college ball player, but the jury is still out about his leadership abilities.
The other great weakness of this team was the lack of forceful, athletic front court players. All of them showed flashes of greatness, but only Suton showed up more than every other game. None of them could handle the ball well, only Suton was occasionally capable of improvisation. Grey is not transferring anywhere, as a fifth year senior, but I will be very surprised if he gets more minutes than Herzog or Ibok this next year, given his inability through four years to pick up the rudiments of the defense.
Thirdly, we all seem to agree that the team went through spells in which it seemed to lose confidence and got that deer in the headlights look. Most of you seem to ascribe it to Izzo’s scripted offense, and the fear of the players to disappoint him. I wonder. On the one hand, I think a good deal of the problem was due to the two factors above. This was a team that had a kind of patched up quality, with some curious weaknesses and not much athleticism — certainly less than Wisconsin, for instance, despite their reputation for non-athleticism. It was also a pretty young team, with often two freshmen and a sophomore on the floor at the same time. On the other hand, I wonder if there were not also chemistry issues. Not that some players did not “like” other players, as the blogs sometimes suggested, notably for Lucas and Neitzel, but that they did not trust each other in some unconscious way. Perhaps the freshmen did not think the seniors could deliver in crunch time, perhaps the upperclassmen thought the freshmen weren’t paying attention on defense. Perhaps the backcourt lost patience with the front court. Perhaps teammates were psyched out by Morgan’s whining in big games. I’m not sure, but in the last half of the season, I kept getting the sense there was something out of whack with this team, despite Izzo’s best efforts and the fact that none of the kids were selfish players or not trying their best.
So what happens next year? I’m hoping the freshmen get stronger, Herzog puts on 20 pounds, Suton improves his outside shooting, Morgan finds maturity and improves his ball handling, Walton gains a modicum of confidence in his outside shooting. The team needs a second reliable three point shooter. The team needs to replace Naymick’s defense in the post. Most of all, though, the team needs a leader.