I’ve been meaning to do this for a couple weeks:
A review of the methodology:
Offensive rating is basically an attempt to use all the individual basketball stats currently available to measure a player’s efficiency in using possessions to score points. The rating uses the same scale as team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions).
Usage rate is determined by the number of shots taken and turnovers committed by each offensive player (i.e., the number of possessions consumed by the player).
Ken Pomeroy provides a good summary of how to look at the two numbers:
A very important aspect of offensive rating is that it must be used in conjunction with the possession usage (%Poss) column to have any value. The average player will use 20% of his team’s possessions while he is on the court. The majority of players fall between 15% and 25%. A player that has a high offensive rating and uses a lot of possessions is especially valuable (example: Adam Morrison, 122.8 ORtg, 31.4% possessions used).
To my semi-trained eye, this year’s scatterplot is looking quite promising. Our two potential stars–Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan–are both using a lot possessions and using them efficiently. Two other major contributors–Goran Suton and Chris Allen–have the potential to move into the upper right-hand quadrant. Suton needs more opportunities on offense; Allen just needs to convert the shots he’s already taking a little more efficiently.
The rest of the players in the rotation aren’t bringing a lot to the table on offense, but they aren’t sucking up a lot of possessions either. The exception to that statement is Korie Lucious, who has the second highest usage rate, but the lowest offensive rating, among the then players shown on the scatterplot.
Lucious’ efficiency does seem to be trending up. Over the last six games (starting with the Texas game), Lucious has scored 16 points on 4-7 three point shooting, made 4 assists, and turned the ball over 4 times in 42 minutes of play. Those are numbers you can live with for your back-up point guard.
Looking at the other two freshman, Draymond Green is doing a nice job with the relatively small number of possessions he’s using up and Delvon Roe’s offensive rating should increase from Gray/Walton territory as his free throw shooting (hopefully) improves. Marquise Gray’s early-season offensive contributions seem to have vanished as we’ve entered conference play; Gray hasn’t posted an offensive rebound in his last five games.
I’ll try to update the scatterplot as conference play progresses and, perhaps, post the scatterplots for some of our Big Ten foes.