Michigan State’s current (raw) offensive efficiency figure is 112.0. So in a 65-possession game, they’d be expected to score 72.8 points. A team of replacement level players (offensive efficiency=88.0), meanwhile, would be expected to score 57.2 points. That’s a gap of 15.6 points–which is 1.7 points higher than the total PORPAG shown above. That difference must be some function of:
1) Contributions by the guys at the end of the bench (who are actually shooting a combined 7-12 from the field). I think this is probably not too significant.
2) A potential advantage MSU might have in terms of team rebounds on offense, which would be the only offensive stat that doesn’t show up in the individual offensive ratings. This might be significant, but probably doesn’t account for 1.7 points/game.
3) Some missing mathematical piece in the formula I don’t have a grasp of.
Anyway, I think the formula gets pretty darn close to divvying up team offensive performance among individual players–as far as that’s possible, given that basketball is inherently a team sport.
- Together, Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan account for almost exactly half of MSU’s performance above replacement level.
- Goran Suton, despite only having played a little over a third of available minutes this season, still ranks 4th in his absolute contributions to the offense.
- Travis Walton, despite ranking second on the team in minutes played, ranks only sixth in PORPAG. The question is whether his defense and leadership makes up for that. My intuitive judgment is that it does, given how well he’s hounded opposing guards this season. (On my to-do list: Compile a game log of offensive performances by opposing team’s top perimeter scoring threats.)