7:00 Tuesday. Crisler Arena. ESPN.
A lot of ground has all ready been covered in the Q&As posted here and on Dylan’s site. So I am going to take a different approach to this game preview. And by “different,” I mean “less time/effort-intensive on my part.” I’ve posted the tempo-free data for the two teams below and will let you, the reader, do the rest of the work.
All numbers below are based on conference-only data. Rankings are among the 11 Big Ten teams.
When MSU Has the Ball
|MSU Off||Rk||UM Def||Rk|
- MSU’s only two games in conference play with a TO% over 23% were the back-to-back home games against Illinois and Northwestern.
- Our 3-point shooting has been hit or miss: 4 conference games with a 3-point % above 45.0%, 4 games with a 3-point % below 30.0%.
- Conference opponents are shooting 53.5% on 2-point attempts vs. Michigan, reflecting their undersized lineup.
- MSU’s free throw rate had been on the decline with Raymar Morgan playing limited/no minutes. But the posted FT rates in the high 40’s in both games this past week. (On that note, check out the graphs at the bottom of this page; nifty new feature Robbie was nice enough to add for me.)
- Michigan rebounds the ball better on defense than I would have expected. Only one conference opponent has posted an OffReb% above 40%. Manny Harris is averaging 5.6 defensive rebounds/game.
When Michigan Has the Ball
|UM Off||Rk||MSU Def||Rk|
- Michigan has taken at least 22 three-pointers in every conference game. In sum, they’ve taken 57 more 3-point shots than any other team in the conference, but are shooting the second lowest percentage (30.7%). Michigan’s top six players in terms of 3-pointers attempted are all shooting under 33.0% in conference play.
- Meanwhile, MSU is forcing the second highest number of 3-point attempts in the conference, with opponents making only 32.1% of those attempts.
- Only 4 Michigan players are shooting at least one free throw per game (vs. 8 for MSU).
- MSU is actually forcing some turnovers of late; the last five opponents have all had TO percentages above 20.0%. Travis Walton has 9 steals over that time period; Goran Suton has 8.
- In the last 8 games, Manny Harris has scored 20+ points in 4 games, but scored in single digits in 3 other games.
- Stu Douglas has scored 33 points on 9-15 three-point shooting in Michigan’s last two games.
Kenpom predicts a 71-66 MSU win in a 65-possession game.
Coffee Talk: Based on the numbers, what do you see as the keys to the game? Which MSU player(s) are you looking to have a big game? What’s your prediction for the outcome?
P.S. To give you fair warning, I’m going down to Ann Arbor to watch the game in person. So the open thread will be unsupervised. Depending on your perspective, this will either make things a lot less fun or a lot more fun.