The Jayhawks are the best rebounding team the Spartans have faced since, well, the Jayhawks. When the two teams met in East Lansing on January 10, however, Michigan State dominated the glass and managed a sparkling 15.7 TO% in the easy win. If the Spartans make those two things happen again on Friday and Sunday, they’ll be in the Final Four. Kansas is interesting in that their strengths are the same on each end of the floor – their offense is driven by a high eFG% and rebounding, while their excellent defense limits those exact two things. Like the Spartans, Kansas has a turnover problem – they commit too many on their end, and they force too few on the other. The offensive leader for the Jayhawks is junior PG Sherron Collins, and he’s amazingly efficient considering his shot diet (north of 30%). Sophomore center Cole Aldrich rebounds, blocks shots, and is an extremely efficient scorer. Kansas also gets some work done at the foul line – the Jayhawks have five regulars that draw over 4 fouls per 40 minutes. Indeed, even at home, the Spartans had Raymar Morgan and Travis Walton foul out, while Suton and Idong Ibok had 4 apiece. The Spartans have a lot of depth inside, but I’m sure Tom Izzo would prefer to be using it by choice.
Avoiding foul trouble in guarding Aldrich is my number one concern about this game. Aldrichs’ tempo-free numbers are pretty darn imposing:
- 60.3% eFG%
- 79.1% FT%
- 28.5% DefReb%
- 9.5% Block%
- And a TO% of just 13.9%–very good for a big man who touches the ball quite a bit
I think we’ll see a good dose of Mr. Ibok in the first half to try to keep Aldrich off balance and keep Suton out of foul trouble.
A couple things not mentioned yet:
the first game was a home game for the Spartans. I suspect here will be more MSU fans than Kansas fans in Indy, but still, it will be a harder atmosphere in which to play.
Second, the first game was a foul fest, a classic Hightower game, in which MSU shot 35 foul shots. All of the MSU big men were in foul trouble. The tightly called game helped Collins get his points on drives, particularly in the second half, and irked the Spartan faithful, but on balance probably helped the deeper MSU.
Third, other than Lucas (22 points in 29 minutes), most of the core rotation for MSU did not shoot the ball well, or play particularly well. Summers and Allen were a combined 3-11. Morgan (who fouled out) was 3-8. Suton was sick, played only 22 foul plagued minutes. Kansas may be a better team now, but it would be surprising if several of the MSU players did not play much closer to their seasonal average.
Fourth, MSU matches up pretty well with Kansas. For two years now, they have played badly against ball hawking defenses anchored by tall guards. Kansas is very good defensively, but they don’t overplay the lanes, and their guards are not taller than MSU’s.
Fifth, MSU has been tested in the first weekend of the tourney — the first half against R. Morris, the whole game against USC. If it is close, MSU will play looser than Kansas — and this is not even counting the fact that Self teams have been known to play tight in March.
MSU’s inconsistency has been frustrating all year. If the team that shows up is the team of the Big Ten tourney, or the team that showed up at Purdue, they will lose. Otherwise, I see this as a win.
A couple of things from statline that point to us coming out ahead if the game is close: We had the better road winning percentage, the better winning percentage in close games, the better winning percentage in neutral court games, and the better winning percentage vs. top 25 opponents. The conclusion is that we have played better than them in adverse circumstances/big games. Granted, in a one game elimination either team can have an off night and go home, but hopefully our season-long performance edge in pressure situations will pay dividends.
Which team benefits the most by a Hightowerless rematch? This Spartan believes it’s MSU.
On a sidenote… Mullens declared for the draft.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/basketball/ncaa/mens-tournament/03/26/mullens.ap/index.html
Didn’t seem to me like Mullens was ready for the NBA – but I’m guessing the money was too hard to pass up if it was going to be there. I hadn’t known it before – but was reading earlier that he apparently comes from a pretty rough family situation and has spent time living in homeless shelters in the past.
More Izzo leaving rumors. I respect Gary Parish, but I’m not buying it.
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/view/6271764
Me neither. If Izzo ever bolts, it’s going to be for the NBA.
Maybe Donovan considers the UK job now, with Florida out of the national spotlight the last two years.
I don’t see UK being desperate enough to take on the controversy that comes with Calipari.
With Mizzou winning handily last night I take back everything I said about the Big 12 being overrated. That assessment was based on the fact that we beat Texas and Kansas, Oklahoma took overtime to beat Purdue (basically a wash), and Illinois beat Missouri in a neutral court game early this year. Basically, the Big 10 was 3-1 against the Big 12 (and these were the top of the league teams we beat) this year and people were saying WE were down.
Well, I guess that was then and this is now because they are looking stronger as the tournament goes on and it’s making me a little nervous about our game tonight. My revised conference strength report would read Big East, Big 12, ACC, Big 10, PAC 10, SEC. Not that it matters that much except that we have to play a Big 12 team tonightm, and teams from that league are looking better and better as the tourney goes on. I still think we can win but lets just say my confidence isn’t quite what it was yesterday.
I don’t think there’s any way Izzo bolts for Kentucky. What would he gain by leaving? It would be a sideways move at best, except that he’d be going from a place where his job is pretty much assured for life to a place that just proved they’re willing to yank the rug out from under you before your predecessor’s recruits have even left.
Calipari might take the jump, if only because he wants to have actual competition for a change instead of running roughshod over a mediocre conference. If Donovan declines, he might be the only big name available – and while I think Parrish is wrong about Kentucky having any chance of landing Izzo, I do think he’s right that they’re going to go after a big name.
um… digger keeps talking about his choice of kansas over msu. no surprise, but i would like to hear what he says after msu wins. I hope dickie v can hush digger after the game…
They need to put Memphis in a real conference and end all this nonsense. I’d suggest we put them in the SEC and kick Vanderbilt out, but I’m afraid that would lower the conference’s overall GPA too much.
…and Digger Phelps is a tool.