Tuesday Night Links
MSU-UNC Preview
9:15 Wednesday night. Ford Field, Detroit. ESPN.
If there’s any team in the country that doesn’t need an introduction to the casual college basketball fan, it’s the North Carolina Tarheels. UNC returned their top seven players from the Final Four team of last season (including the national player of the year), added another elite-level recruiting class, and currently stands as the #1 team in the nation by acclamation.
As good as North Carolina was last season, they look downright bullet-proof this season. Witness:
- They’ve started the season 7-0, having beaten all of their opponents by at least 15 points. Included in the list of vanquished foes is Kentucky, Oregon, and #7 Notre Dame (the team that got within 15 points).
- They’ve put up an offensive efficiency figure of 113 or better in 6 of their 7 games. (The exception was a run-of-the-mill 104 against Kentucky.)
- They’ve put up a defensive efficiency number of 95 or lower in 6 of their 7 games. (The exception involved a 39-point, 10-18 three-point shooting explosion by Notre Dame’s Kyle McAlarney.)
- They rank in the top 75 nationally in all but one of the “four factors” on the two sides of the ball (eight factors total). Offensive free throw rate is the exception–which shouldn’t be an issue if Tyler Hansborough is in the lineup.
- Hansborough, despite a shin injury that’s limited him to three games, has nevertheless averaged 21.3 points per game in those three games. He’s shooting 57.1% from 2-point range and 90.3% (!) from the free throw line–and has knocked down a three-pointer to boot.
- Hansbrough’s rebounding average is down from 10.3 to 5.2, but 6’10” freshman Ed Davis has picked up the slack, averaging 9.0 boards per game. And Deon Thompson has chipped in another 8.0 rebounds per game.
- Two of the Tarheel players, Ty Lawson and Danny Green, have made more than 50% of their three-point attempts to date. And Wayne Ellington hasn’t been too shabby at 39.5%.
- UNC is extremely balanced on offense, with 6 players averaging at least 9 points per game.
- And 10 players have played at least 10 minutes per game.
- Ty Lawson sports an assist-turnover ratio of 47-9. His back-up, freshman Larry Drew, has an only-slightly-less-impressive ratio of 26-9.
- They don’t seem to be missing defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard (who’s out with a stress fracture in his foot) too much, as they’re holding opponents to a 40.1% shooting percentage on two-point FG attempts.
To sum up: We’re definitely the underdogs.
From a team-level perspective, North Carolina looks a lot like us–but on steroids. They’re led by a lightning-quick point guard, they’re deep and athletic, they like to push the tempo, they don’t shoot many three-pointers, and they rebound the ball extremely well. Coming up with a game plan to beat them, therefore, is a tall measure. Any strength that MSU hopes to take advantage of is offset by an even greater strength exhibited by UNC.
Execution probably trumps strategy in this one. MSU could try to slow the game down to keep UNC from taking advantage of their speed and athleticism, but:
(1) UNC will likely have their best low-post player available; we won’t. (I’m not buying that Hanborough is a “game-time decision.”)
and
(2) It probably wouldn’t work anyway.
If I had to come up with a key to the game on offense, I’d say perimeter shooting. Outside shooting (3-point shooting, in particular) tends to be more random than other aspects of basketball performance and is the calling card of undermanned underdogs who pull off big upsets. If Chris Allen can find his shooting stroke and Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers can hit a couple 3-pointers each, we’ll have a shot at this one.
I worry about Raymar Morgan in this game. He tends to struggle on both ends of the court against players that can match his size and athleticism, and North Carolina has a couple of those in Danny Green and Deon Thompson. Perimeter shooting will probably be key for Morgan to contribute on offense. On defense, he has to move his feet to keep from reaching in on the Tarheel forwards as they drive to the basket.
On defense, I’ll be interested to see how we rebound. We know UNC has multiple players that can create their own shots. If those shots are falling, there may not be much we can do. But if they’re not falling, we have to limit them to one shot per possession. Of course, that’s easier said than done against the likes of Hanborough, Thompson, and Davis. Marquise Gray, Delvon Roe, and Draymond Green have their work cut out for them.
The Sagarin Ratings predict a Tarheel win by somewhere between 4.5 and 9.0 points, depending on how much of an advantage, if any, you think the Ford Field crowd will be for MSU. I’d be surprised if the point spread isn’t at the high end of that range, if not into double digits. Frankly, if MSU plays with UNC for 40 minutes and loses by single digits, that may qualify as a moral victory.
I’ll be heading down to Detroit to root for our Spartans in person. The fan half of my brain believes they can win. The analyst half of my brain, as you can see, is skeptical. Nevertheless:
GO STATE!
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