9:10 pm, Saturday. Pepsi Center, Denver. CBS.
Pittsburgh comes in at 27-9 on the season. They finished 10-8 in Big East regular season play, but won the conference tournament championship, beating Cincinnatti, Louisville, Marquette, and Georgetown along the way. That’s an impressive four-game sweep. Their best win on the season was a 65-64 OT win over Duke in New York. All in all, their record looks pretty solid, with the only obvious bad losses being a 25-point loss to Dayton on the road and a home game they dropped to Rutgers.
Pittsburgh’s statistical strengths lie on the offensive end of the court. They rank 8th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency–vs. just 58th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Their offensive prowess can be summed up concisely: They take a lot of shots. They don’t turn the ball over (TO% of 18.1%; 29th in the nation) and they grab a lot of offensive rebounds (off reb% of 39.7%; 10th in the nation). They excel on the offensive glass despite fielding a pretty short lineup. None of their regulars is taller than 6’8″ and they rank just 234rd in the nation in kenpom’s average-minutes-weighted-height stat.
6’7″ freshman DeJuan Blair leads the way on the offensive glass. He averages 9.2 rebounds/game and ranks 6th in the nation with an offensive rebounding % of 16.8%.
Pittsburgh would be absolutely unstoppable on offense if not for mediocre shooting stats. Their effective FG% of 51.1% ranks just 118th in the nation and their free throw rate 23.8% is only 217th best in the country. Leading scorer Sam Young (18.1 points/game) is also their most efficient scorer. The 6’6″ junior sported shooting percentages of .539/.393/.681 (2pt/3pt/FT) going into the NCAA tournament.
Point guard Levance Field, a 5’10” junior, had been a pretty inefficient scorer this season (3pt% of .258), but he hit 4 of 7 three-pointers and scored 23 points in Pitt’s first-round win over Oral Roberts.
Pitt’s defensive resume is fairly mediocre. Their lack of height apparently hurts them more on the defensive glass. They rank just 185th in the nation in defensive rebounding (opponent’s off reb% = 33.1%). Their defensive has tightened up, though, in postseason play. They’ve held four of their last five opponents to an effective FG% below 50%.
I’m going to take the easy path in terms of the Spartans Weblog Key to the Game and say it’s rebounding. Both teams are very good on the offensive glass but far from dominant on the defensive end. If either team can control the rebounds on the defensive end, that could be enough to swing the game toward them. Marquise Gray’s sprained toe could hurt here. For all his struggles, the one thing he can do is pull down defensive rebounds (def reb% = 21.8%).
Secondary keys:
- The big guys have to stay out of foul trouble against the smaller, but physical, Pitt frontcourt players. This is not a game you want to bring Ibok or Herzog into. And if Gray plays, the toe injury probably exacerbates his already-suspect defense.
- Suton needs to use his height to create some low post baskets. We know he has the ability to score over people with a variety of low post moves. Suton’s scored exactly 6 points in his last four games, after having scored in double digits in 4 of the previous 5 games. He needs more touches. He needs to be assertive in asking for the ball and the guards need to get it to him.
- I’d mention that Morgan needs to use his size and athleticism to score against smaller defenders, but he played better last game when I said we shouldn’t count on him. So let’s stick with that.
- Neitzel needs to keep shooting. He’d made 20 of 46 three-pointers (.435) in the 5 games prior to the 1-8 performance from beyond the arc on Thursday.
- Find a way to stop Sam Young. Apparently, Suton will guard him to start (see Rexrode link below). That’s a tough match-up. Morgan becomes the more likely defender as the game goes on, but that invites foul trouble given Morgan’s history. You wonder if Izzo might use Walton to mix things up at some point.
Related links:
Dave Dye notes Izzo’s career record of 11-2 in the second game of NCAA tournament weekends. One of those two losses was to #1 seed North Carolina in the second round last year. Izzo is the master of creating and implementing game plans on a short turnaround.
Joe Rexrode has the defensive match-ups for tomorrow night. MSU will have a lot more size on the floor to start the game, creating mismatches on both ends of the floor.
Check out Pitt Blather for a perspective from Panther land.
Kenpom predicts MSU to win 69-67 in 64 possessions. This one shapes up to be a physical battle. Positive spin: MSU should be prepared, having played 20 games in the most physical conference in the land. Negative spin: They lost seven of those 20 games, often struggling when games became physical half-court battles.
If we can find a way to stop Young, I think we can find enough way to score now that our turnover problems are under control (TO% below 20% in 8 of the last 9 games). I have a feeling we’ll all be spending a pretty tense two hours in front of the TV tomorrow night. But I’m hopeful our Spartans will bring a healthy dose of vim to this one.
GO GREEN!
Fighting with a vim RA RA RA.
GO WHITE!
Two keys to the game: first Neitzel has to score. MSU plays with more confidence when he is on; and second, paradoxically all the other players have to take the ball to the rack. when Suton and Morgan are jump shooters, it’s because the offense is static. Particularly with the heigth advantage, MSU should be pounding it inside.
I like the fact that Pitt has as much of a reputation for physicality as MSU. if the game is called tight, then MSU’s greater depth is an advantage. If, on the other hand, they let ’em play, then Morgan and Maymick get to play much looser, and with more confidence.
It should be a great game. It’s too darn bad it’s being played in the second round. MSU, pulling away in the second half with Blair in foul trouble. Suton gets a double double, plays career game.
just posted this on m-live then wanted to get others’ thoughts here too:
“They communicate, and they knew practically all of our plays,” Owls center Sergio Olmos said. “Like the names and everything.” quote from Temple paper about MSU.
Also noted when Wisconsin being interviewed about their next opponent (On TV, i think it was Butch) he said, I don’t know too much about . . . but we’ll get some dinner and sleep and really learn about them tomorrow”.
The early Thursday game could be an advantage for MSU. Someone ( i think Lansing State Journal but could’ve been free press) reviewed MSU’s prep which included several 10-20 minutes sessions, alternating video previews/work with walk-throughes in the hotel and the notebook each player has and uses to prepare for the opponent. Interesting that Temple was surprised, hope that we can outwork Pitt and knowing some of their plays will make the difference in this game.
Sounds like the players do quite a bit of film study on their own too.
Loved it when Pitt’s big man (Dejuan Blair i think) knew nothing about Naymick one day before their matchup. Noone is mentioning the advantage of a 5th year senior over a freshman in that match up also.
Also, want to give props to kj and this site. I usually save it for last as the analysis is great! Very thought-provoking and different from the media coverage. I start out with the Lansing State Journal, usually only see a rehash and less in- depth coverage from the Det News, pick up one or two different things from the Free Press – loved the indepth Tom Izzo article by Sean Windsor and only go to mlive when i have time to read all the comments or when the flamers are not as active there. I really enjoy the blogs and the comments. The 2 contests have been fun (BTT and 16 bracket wins/points).
Glad you’re enjoying the site, wifeofaspartan.
Good points on MSU’s defense against unfamiliar opponents. For all our griping about the problems on offense this year, we tend to take Izzo’s defensive coaching for granted. I wonder if Izzo’s ability to gameplan for new opponents is a better explanation of their tendency to play better in nonconference games than the slower pace of the Big Ten?
Don’t forget that Izzo’s other second day loss was to Texas in San Antonio during the 2003 Elite Eight. So it’s not like he’s ever had a bad 2nd day loss.
GO GREEN!!!!!!!
but the point is, Izzo’s two “second day losses” were against miuch higher seeds, who had home court advantage. (and in last year’s game we accounted pretty darn well for ourselves). The amount of baskets we got on slip screens to the basket Thursday was a direct result of our game prep for Temple, hopefully the same translates into buckets tonight.
If we can survive getting “punched in the face” and do enough of our things (push tempo, and get solid efforts from Allen/Summers) we’ll be in good shape. Plus I love the fact that none of the “national experts” are giving us much of a chance, we didn’t do great as “favorites” this year, perhaps we’re better as the underdog.
It’s funny hearing how much credit Pitt gets for being tough defensively from the pundits – a quick glance at the stats says otherwise.
I like our chances, partly because no one else does and partly because Izzo is better than just about anyone at preparing on short notice.
By “says otherwise” I simply mean that they’re not ridiculously good, like the pundits think – decent, but not anywhere near the level of Wisconsin. In fact, according to Pomeroy’s figures, eight Big Ten teams had better defenses, everyone except for Michigan, PSU, and NW.
The most comparable team, qualitatively, I can find on the defensive end in the Big Ten is Ohio State, who we seemed to handle pretty well most of the time – except that in efficiency, OSU rates 21st and Pitt rates 57th. Offensively, I don’t see a really good analogue (the closest, in terms of areas of relative strength, is Penn State, but obviously Pitt’s offense is a *lot* better than that).
Agree with Dan about the Pitt defense. It’s funny–since the tempo-free stats say MSU is almost exactly as good on offense as on defense (20th in the nation vs. 22nd)–but I feel much better playing a team whose strength is on offense than on defense. Has something to do with (1) the inconsistency on offense this season and (2) Izzo’s history of finding a way to shutdown the other team’s top scorer.
[…] several hours before tip-off and I am already tense. The Spartans Weblog has their take on the game. I appreciate the bias (”MSU should be prepared, having played 20 games in the most physical […]
Good Luck Spartans!
The MSU Karma must flow across the nation like green beer on Monday.
I am predicting outstanding games from the Double D’s.
We are Sparta!