Posted in michigan state basketball, tagged site news on July 8, 2010|
To avoid paying any more monthly server costs, I’ve moved the SW archives back over to the free WordPress platform. I think the only major loss is the Java-based StatSheet charts. Other than that, everything should be here for your browsing pleasure. If anyone finds any other major glitches, shoot me an e-mail.
For fresh Spartan blogging content, of course, head over to The Only Colors.
Posted in michigan state basketball, tagged north carolina, schedule on June 17, 2008| 2 Comments »
SI.com’s Luke Winn has a breakdown of the winners and losers from offseason developments, with NBA early-entry decisions having been finalized yesterday. The biggest winner, of course, is North Carolina, which returns all three guys who had been looking at the NBA draft plus player of the year Tyler Hansborough (who didn’t even explore the draft). This means their starting lineup from this season’s Final Four team remains fully intact.
With three McDonald’s All-Americans arriving to supplement the returning players, UNC Basketball Update ponders whether this could be the most talented college basketball team ever. The Tar Heel Fan Blog, meanwhile, is feeling confident enough to declare UNC “the prohibitive favorite” to win the national title and drop a Tombstone quote in the process.
So our Spartans’ work will definitely be cut out for them when they face the Tarheels at Ford Field in December.
Regarding other teams on MSU’s upcoming nonconference schedule who had players looking at the NBA:
All in all, the nonconference slate looks to be as tough as any that MSU has ever played.
Posted in links, michigan state basketball, recruiting on May 29, 2008| 1 Comment »
Izzo is reportedly in the hunt for 6’7″ shooting guard Russell Byrd out of Fort Wayne (a 2010 recruit), as is John Beilein. Byrd’s father indicates Iowa is currently the leader, though. This quote from Mr. Byrd is enlightening regarding Izzo’s plans for the next two recruiting classes:
“They said they had three scholarships for that 2010 class and wanted to make sure that he knew that he was one of the three,” Mr. Byrd recalled. “They talked about the point guard. They need a point guard, a shooting guard and a big man. It sounded like they had already made some progress. They seemed pretty high on (Detroit Pershing guard Keith Appling) and they felt like he and Russell would make a pretty good pair in that 2010 class.”
This would seem to indicate Izzo plans to bank one of the four scholarships available for the 2009 class so he’d have three available for the 2010 class. That leaves only one more spot for 2009 then; hard to figure what Izzo does about top target Jamil Wilson, who doesn’t plan to announce his college choice until next March (which isn’t to say, I suppose, that Izzo and the other coaches involved won’t have a good sense what his plans are before then).
Regarding the two 2009 verbal commitments already on board (Garrick Sherman and Derrick Nix), they’re apparently enough for ESPN.com to anoint MSU’s class the 9th best in the country at this early date. Illinois is #2; Purdue is #10.
Izzo recently pontificated on a number of topics at a recent community event in Fort Wayne (a coincidence?). He talked about the tough task ahead for Crean at IU and was pretty blunt regarding the state of college basketball recruiting:
“Cheating’s getting worse,” Izzo said. “Everybody feels they have to get a player for a year and win big. …It’s kind of too fast of a track right now, if you ask me.”
An explanation as to why Steven Lavin–the #1 college basketball commentator in all the land, as judged by the Spartans Weblog–has such an extensive vocabulary: his Dad was an English teacher.
Apparently, Drew Neitzel’s doing OK in Orlando:
Amongst the wings, Drew Neitzel (9 pts, 1 reb) and Robert Vaden (13 pts, 2 reb) shot the ball relatively well, but showed a stark contrast in shot selection. Neitzel did a great job taking what the defensive gave him, while Vaden seemed more content shooting with a hand in his face after a rhythm dribble.
That would be the Robert Vaden formerly of the Indiana Hoosiers and more recently of the UAB Blazers. The Indy Star puts a better spin on Vaden’s offensive performance and quotes Neitzel as follows:
Vaden spent most of his time in the backcourt with Michigan State point guard Drew Neitzel.
“I’ve known Robert since high school. We played against each other in some camps,” Neitzel said. “He’s got the smoothest shot I’ve seen. It’s a lot of fun playing with him because he gets you a lot of assists.”
If you want to be an undersized NBA point guard, I suppose a few assists can’t hurt.
Finally: The “Going on the Fritz” Part
So the plan is to migrate the blog to a paid hosting site over the next week or two. I’d expect this may result in some downtime at some point and that posting will be fairly light. (Do note that I’ve posted three straight days, though, by golly.) I really don’t have a great sense of how this will work. I think this address ought to get you to the existing content during the migration:
https://spartansweblog.wordpress.com
Eventually the new whizbang site should be here (note the use of vague “whizbang” modifier since I really can make no promises there will be, you know, actual improvements):
Once everything is up and running, we’ll do some historical research on MSU’s tempo-free tendencies over the years. I know the anticipation will be killing you . . .
Posted in coffee talk, drew neitzel, michigan state basketball on May 28, 2008| 5 Comments »
With the Tigers’ odds of contending for a playoff spot rapidly dwindling to naught, the five months until the 2008-09 MSU basketball season begins are looking even longer to me than they otherwise would. Nonetheless, let’s look ahead to how the team fits together, at least on paper.
I’ve now provided my thoughts on all the returning scholarship players:
Durrell Summers and Chris Allen
Isaiah Dahlman, Idong Ibok, and Tom Herzog
Putting these 10 guys in with the three incoming freshman and preferred walk-on Austin Thornton, I see the depth chart looking something like this next season:
| Starter | Bench | ||
| Point | Lucas | Walton | Lucious |
| Wings | Allen | Dahlman | Thornton |
| Morgan | Summers | ||
| Bigs | Roe | Gray | Green |
| Suton | Ibok | Herzog |
Comments:
Here’s how I’d project playing time for the full roster:
Averaging out the ranges, these figures add up to 200 minutes per game. They imply that Morgan would slide to the 4 spot for just 5 minutes per game and the team would have two point guards on the floor for 15 minutes.
Projecting the freshman is obviously the hardest, having not seen them play. There don’t seem to be a lot of minutes there for Lucious with two established point guards ahead of him. He is supposed to be a better pure shooter than Lucas, though, so maybe that gets him some time on the floor. Green would seem to have a shot to take some minutes away from Gray.
Coffee Talk time: What do you think? Who do you see stepping up to replace Neitzel? What excites/worries you most about this roster?
Speaking of Neitzel . . .
He’s been invited to the NBA pre-draft camp, which began in Orlando today. Other Big Ten players participating are Jamar Butler, Brian Butch, and Othello Hunter. (Eric Gordon is there for a physical only; D.J. White and Kosta Koufos aren’t in Orlando. White may or may not think he’s a lock to be a Piston.)
We’ll keep our eyes open for updates on Neitzel’s performance. His lack of size still seems like a huge obstacle to making it in today’s rough-and-tumble NBA, but I hope he gets every opportunity to find a niche with a team looking for an efficient ball-handler with shooting range. We do tend to forget how good a passer he is, given that those skills were underutilized during his college career as he was relied on as the primary scorer for the last two years.
Posted in big ten, breslin center, general, michigan state basketball on May 27, 2008|
AKA They’re numbers and they’re MSU basketball-related, so I must analyze them.
Despite once again selling out every home game, MSU ranked just 17th in the nation in average home attendance this season (from the page I’ve linked to, there’s a link to a Word file with all the details). This is, of course, a function of the relatively small size (14,759) of the Breslin Center relative to the arenas of other major programs. What’s say we knock out a wall and add some more bleachers?
Other attendance nuggets:
Here’s a complete list of Big Ten average home attendance figures (capacity figures, courtesy of this article, are in brackets):
I’d expect that Purdue number to go up next year. And kudos to Illini fans for selling out all their games despite the team’s substandard results this past season.
Site News
Posted in marquise gray, michigan state basketball, stats analysis on May 22, 2008| 1 Comment »
This is the last in the series of posts looking at each returning scholarship player’s performance this past season. And we’ve saved the most enigmatic Spartan for last: Marquise Gray.
Gray came into the program in 2004 as a 5-star recruit expected to use his off-the-charts athleticism to become a major star. Needless to say, that hasn’t happened. Instead, he’s shown very little development over his four years on campus (including a redshirt year), as indicated by his playing time:
Given the relatively small amount of playing time Gray received this season–particularly in conference and postseason play–we’ll look at trends in his statistical performance over his career, rather than within the context of the past season. Most of the stats below have been pulled from the fabulous statsheet.com.
Scoring
Most of these numbers actually look pretty good. Gray has increased both his field goal and free throw shooting percentages in each of the last two seasons. The problem is that he hasn’t shown any ability to expand the types of shots he can take. That last stat above is the estimated percentage of the team’s FG attempts he’s taken while he’s on the floor. After an uptick in this number as a sophomore, the figure fell back to 16.5% this last season. This implies that the shot’s he’s taking are mostly dunks and other high-percentage attempts–most of which he hasn’t created himself.
Ball-Handling
The second problem that Gray’s shooting percentage numbers mask is his increasing propensity to turn the ball over when he gets anywhere near the basket. A turnover rate of 31.0% implies Gray gave the ball up every 16th possession he was on the floor this season. Those are bad numbers for a point guard, let alone a big guy who rarely touches the ball in a contested position. Gray has shown flashes of ability to score in the low post over his career, but those instances were overwhelmed by the propensity to turn the ball over when he got the ball in offensive sets.
Rebounding
Gray did continue to do the one thing he’s always done well this season: rebound the ball defensively. He would have ranked third in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (just behind Suton) if he had played enough minutes to qualify. His offensive rebounding % fell off but was still top-ten quality.
Defense
Gray’s block and steal numbers have never been great for a player with his athleticism, and both numbers dipped this past season from the prior year. Further, there’s no stat to show what I’d anecdotally say was Gray’s biggest problem this year: mental errors on defense that resulted in easy baskets for the opposition. This is what I had to say about Gray after the Big Ten Tournament game against Ohio State:
Marquise Gray is now officially a complete liability on the court. He played only 6 minutes after leaving Koufos wide open in the first half for a 3-pointer and long 2-pointer for absolutely no reason other than apparently not realizing Koufos could shoot the ball.
If not for the lack of defensive intensity, Izzo could probably live with Gray’s offensive limitations–particularly in light of his rebounding prowess. But Gray basically played himself out of the playing rotation this year. His average minutes per game fell from 17.5 in nonconference play to 11.8 in conference play (including the BTT).
Gray played a total of just 7 minutes in the 3 NCAA Tournament games, partially due to a sprained toe and a knee injury for which he underwent surgery after the season. Those injuries were the latest in a string of injuries Gray has suffered as a Spartan–something Izzo has pointed to as a factor in Gray’s disappointing play relative to his talent.
Gray still has a chance to be a major contributor in his senior season. Suton will man one of the big man spots for 30 minutes a game. We hope Delvon Roe will be ready to play most of the minutes at the other spot right off the bat, but you can’t take that for granted. Neither Ibok nor Herzog seem likely to regularly play 15-20 minutes as the first big man off the bench. Gray’s likely competitor for playing time will be freshman Draymond Green. If Gray can just limit the mental errors at both ends of the court, his rebounding ability alone should earn him a decent amount of playing time.
Whether Gray can finally find a consistent level of mental intensity in his fifth year in the program is a pretty big question mark, though. He’s clearly a guy with a passion for the game (as evidenced by his sometimes overexuberant celebrations after dunks) and a willingness to play hard (as evidenced by his rebounding stats). Putting it all together in a year when MSU has high hopes for hanging a banner or two would be a great finish to what has been a fairly underwhelming college career to date.
Posted in links, michigan state basketball, tagged recruiting on May 20, 2008| 4 Comments »
Much-maligned Detroit Country Day center DaShonte Riley has committed to Georgetown. Riley plummeted to #111 in Rival’s latest ranking of 2009 prospects. Nix is #108. Sherman is #130. As previously indicated, I’m not a recruiting expert by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems like Izzo needs a wing player in the 2009 class to balance out perimeter players vs. inside guys over the next few years.
On the topic of Rivals rankings, Hoops Marinara (a Wisconsin basketball blog) has a breakdown of the Big Ten’s 2008 recruiting class. The introductory paragraph sums things up:
When Rivals.com released its final Class of 2008 rankings, the Big Ten sat fifth among conferences with 16 of the Top 150 recruits. That number is especially interesting because of how much talent the region produces. There are a total of 30 players from states that contain a member university . . .
The post notes that the IU decommitments following Sampson’s ouster hurt these numbers somewhat. Regardless, the apparent exodus of talent from the Midwest is disconcerting–although less disconcerting for MSU, which got one top-150 guy each from Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
On a positive note for the Big Ten, the conference already has 15 verbal commitments from the Rivals Top 150 for 2009–the most of any conference.
The LSJ had a profile of Jamil Wilson in Sunday’s paper. Not a lot of new information. Wilson certainly has an impressive list of top four schools at this point: Duke, UCLA, Kansas, MSU.
Now for something to make you feel really creeped out about college basketball recruiting–and the sport generally: this piece by Mike DeCourcy on the O.J. Mayo situation. DeCourcy’s conclusion is basically that the entire sport of college basketball is corrupt. College athletes have become commodities and there’s not much anyone can do anything about it, like changing the one-and-done rule or expecting 18-year old kids to resist being treated like celebrities.
While DeCourcy may overstate the case somewhat–people are ultimately responsible for their decisions–his fundamental point, I’m sad to say, is correct. Big-time college sports is on a collision course for disaster at some point (example: a team potentially having to forfeit a national championship due to an eligibility issue). You simply can’t expect to generate as much revenue as Division 1 football and basketball do today and, at the same time, keep the athletes themselves in some sort of bubble of unadulterated amateurism.
It’s not about whether athletes deserve to be paid. (I don’t think they do.) It’s about the fact that the system is simply unsustainable from the standpoint of basic human behavior. And I’m not sure how you adjust the system to make it sustainable without completely throwing out the notion of the amateur student-athlete.
OK, I really need to stay focused on statistical analysis before I swear off college sports altogether. We’ll look at Marquise Gray’s numbers later this week.
Posted in links, michigan state basketball, recruiting on May 20, 2008| 4 Comments »
Much-maligned Detroit Country Day center DaShonte Riley has committed to Georgetown. Riley plummeted to #111 in Rival’s latest ranking of 2009 prospects. Nix is #108. Sherman is #130. As previously indicated, I’m not a recruiting expert by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems like Izzo needs a wing player in the 2009 class to balance out perimeter players vs. inside guys over the next few years.
On the topic of Rivals rankings, Hoops Marinara (a Wisconsin basketball blog) has a breakdown of the Big Ten’s 2008 recruiting class. The introductory paragraph sums things up:
When Rivals.com released its final Class of 2008 rankings, the Big Ten sat fifth among conferences with 16 of the Top 150 recruits. That number is especially interesting because of how much talent the region produces. There are a total of 30 players from states that contain a member university . . .
The post notes that the IU decommitments following Sampson’s ouster hurt these numbers somewhat. Regardless, the apparent exodus of talent from the Midwest is disconcerting–although less disconcerting for MSU, which got one top-150 guy each from Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
On a positive note for the Big Ten, the conference already has 15 verbal commitments from the Rivals Top 150 for 2009–the most of any conference.
The LSJ had a profile of Jamil Wilson in Sunday’s paper. Not a lot of new information. Wilson certainly has an impressive list of top four schools at this point: Duke, UCLA, Kansas, MSU.
Now for something to make you feel really creeped out about college basketball recruiting–and the sport generally: this piece by Mike DeCourcy on the O.J. Mayo situation. DeCourcy’s conclusion is basically that the entire sport of college basketball is corrupt. College athletes have become commodities and there’s not much anyone can do anything about it, like changing the one-and-done rule or expecting 18-year old kids to resist being treated like celebrities.
While DeCourcy may overstate the case somewhat–people are ultimately responsible for their decisions–his fundamental point, I’m sad to say, is correct. Big-time college sports is on a collision course for disaster at some point (example: a team potentially having to forfeit a national championship due to an eligibility issue). You simply can’t expect to generate as much revenue as Division 1 football and basketball do today and, at the same time, keep the athletes themselves in some sort of bubble of unadulterated amateurism.
It’s not about whether athletes deserve to be paid. (I don’t think they do.) It’s about the fact that the system is simply unsustainable from the standpoint of basic human behavior. And I’m not sure how you adjust the system to make it sustainable without completely throwing out the notion of the amateur student-athlete.
OK, I really need to stay focused on statistical analysis before I swear off college sports altogether. We’ll look at Marquise Gray’s numbers later this week.
Posted in idong ibok, isaiah dahlman, michigan state basketball, tom herzog on May 15, 2008| 2 Comments »
A Couple Links
The End-of-the-Bench Guys
Picking up on our end-of-the-season review, let’s talk about the three scholarship players who saw minimal action this past year: Isaiah Dahlman, Idong Ibok, and Tom Herzog. There’s not a lot to be done in terms of statistical analysis, since these three players saw a total of just 270 minutes of PT. Here are a few tidbits on each player:
Isaiah Dahlman
Dahlman played 61 minutes over 19 games this season. He saw the court for 10 minutes in just one game (San Jose State). His high scoring output was 6 points on two 3-pointers in the home win against Penn State. (Note that I attended both these games. Perhaps I’m Isaiah Dahlman’s lucky charm . . .or perhaps the games I can get tickets to are the ones against weak opponents.)
You’ll recall Dahlman saw the floor quite a bit as a freshman–15.5 minutes per game–as the Spartans lacked depth on the perimeter. This average was pulled up by a 7-game stretch where he played 20+ minutes per game while Morgan was injured. (Dahlman then missed 8 games himself with an injury during the conference season.)
Dahlman seems like a hard worker and solid member of the team, but it’s hard to see what strengths he brings to the table at this point. He came in having put up big scoring numbers in high school, but has never shown any real spark on offense with MSU. His career shooting numbers aren’t bad: .459/.321/.717 (2pt/3pt/FT). But it’s not clear he’d be able to maintain those numbers if he were relied on to shoot frequently. For his career, he’s taken only 7.7 FG attempts per 40 minutes played. One observation I’ve made is that it seems to take him too long to set himself and get his shot off.
Izzo mentioned the possibility of a mid-career redshirt for Dahlman at the end of the season. Maybe this would give him a chance to develop ala David Thomas, but it’s hard to see him becoming a key part of the playing rotation in his final two years of eligibility.
Idong Ibok
Ibok played 141 minutes over 26 games this season. He reached double digits in just 4 games–although two of those came in MSU’s final four games. One of those performances consisted of playing some key minutes in the first half of MSU’s tournament win over Pittsburgh with Raymar Morgan and Drew Naymick in foul trouble.
He managed to pick up 28 personal fouls in his 141 minutes–a rate of 7.9 per 40 minutes. And his 10 blocked shots equated to just 2.8 per 40 minutes, down from a rate of 7.2 the previous season.
With only one year of eligibility remaining (and his bachelor’s degree in hand), there’s probably not much room for Ibok to improve. He will be what he has been: an option off the bench to absorb fouls and block a few shots.
Tom Herzog
After red-shirting last season, Herzog played 68 minutes in 13 games this season. His only 10+ minute outing was in the blowout win against Penn State. For the season, he made 6 of 14 FG attempts and blocked 6 shots.
Herzog was recruited by former MSU assistant Jim Boylen, who had a reputation for working with big men as an assistant in the NBA with the Rockets. (Of course, a lot of coaches could make Hakeem Olajuwan and Yao Ming look good.) Boylen became the head coach at Utah following the 2006-07 season.
It remains to be seen whether the current coaching staff can develop Herzog into a legitimate offensive threat. With a 7’0″ frame, a few decent post moves could be enough to make him a regular contributor. Based on his first year of limited action, it’s unclear whether that will happen.
Conclusion
Barring major injuries, it seems unlikely that any of these three players will become major contributors during the 2008-09 season. Herzog probably has the most upside of the three, with three years of eligibility remaining.
But having these three guys around does have benefits. They’ll push the other players in practice, and having two extra big guys to call on when you need them could be a nice luxury next season, as a number of Big Ten teams appear to be very shallow on the front line. Unless Dahlman redshirts, MSU will probably have 13 active scholarship players next season. In that scenario, a few players simply aren’t going to see the court too much.
The last player to look at is Marquise Gray. When I started this post, I thought this would be the last in the series. The fact that I nearly forgot altogether about a player who started 14 games says something about how Gray’s season went. More on that later.
Posted in coffee talk, links, michigan state basketball on May 11, 2008| 9 Comments »
Our friend Devin (of College Basketball Chronotope) provides a couple useful links:
In the wider world of college basketball, the ACC doesn’t think they’re getting enough NCAA Tournament bids:
For the second time in three years since the ACC expanded to 12 schools, just four of its teams were selected for the NCAA tournament. Despite having the highest conference RPI for 2007-08, the ACC received fewer NCAA bids than the Big East, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC.
Here’s a case where the difference between the mean and the median makes a difference. Based on average RPI, the ACC was indeed the highest ranked conference this past season. But that figure is pulled upward by UNC’s #1 and Duke’s #7 rankings. Based on the median RPI ranking–a more appropriate gauge of how good the teams in the middle of the conference are–the ACC ranked only 4th among college conferences. (I’m embarrassed to note the Big Ten’s median RPI ranking was 101st, due to the big drop-off from Ohio State to Minnesota.) Conclusion: UNC and Duke being really good doesn’t mean Virginia Tech and Wake Forest should get into the Big Dance.
There’s no trouble on the Academic Progress Ratings front for Michigan State.
According to a poll of college coaches, MSU has two of the top 20 assistant coaches in the country. Mark Montgomery ranks 16th; Dwayne Stephens ranks 17th. Seems like there’s been less chatter about Montgomery being a candidate for head coaching jobs this year than there was the previous couple years.
Here’s a fun read from Sports Illustrated’s recently-opened vault: A piece written in February 2000 about Morris Peterson. I’d forgotten that MSU beat UConn in a nonconference game played in the middle of the conference season that year. And most people forget how unheralded Peterson was as an incoming freshman–his only scholarship offers from major programs were from MSU and Minnesota. He remains Izzo’s greatest achievement in terms of player development: a one-dimensional scorer who became an All-American and a an NBA starter.
Speaking of Spartan players from seasons past, let’s see if anyone’s still out there. Here’s your first offseason Coffee Talk question:
Who is your favorite MSU basketball player of all time? (And why?)
My answer to this question doesn’t require much conjuring up of days of yore. Drew Netizel, who shares my hometown and high school alma mater (Wyoming Park), is my all-time favorite. You already know what I think about his career.
Mrs. Spartans Weblog’s pick is more eclectic: Matt Ishbia. We remember fondly cheering for the diminutive walk-on to enter the game at the end of blowouts during our days as student season ticket holders.
Your turn . . .
Spartans Weblog 
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